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Italy industrial output falls 0.3% in May, missing forecasts

Created at 10 Jul · 8:35 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Italian industrial output declined by 0.3% in May, ending a three-month streak of positive growth and signaling renewed weakness in the euro zone's third-largest economy. Analysts had predicted a 0.2% drop.

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Key Numbers

0.3%May industrial output month-on-month fall
0.2%Reuters survey forecast for May industrial output fall
0.9%March-May industrial output increase vs previous three months
0.4%April industrial output month-on-month rise (revised)
1.1%May industrial output year-on-year rise
1.3%Forecast for May industrial output year-on-year rise
0.6%Government economic growth outlook for this year and next
0.3%First quarter 2026 GDP increase quarter-on-quarter
0.5%2025 GDP growth

Who's Involved

ISTAT
Italian national statistics agency
Reuters
News agency conducting analyst survey
Antonella Cinelli
Reporter
Alvise Armellini
Editor
Italy industrial output falls 0.3% in May, missing forecasts

↳ Why This Matters

The decline in Italy's industrial output signals a potential slowdown in its manufacturing sector, impacting the broader euro zone economy and raising concerns about economic growth prospects amid ongoing geopolitical and energy cost challenges.

Key facts

  • Italian industrial output decreased by 0.3% in May compared to April.
  • This marks the end of a three-month positive streak for industrial production.
  • A Reuters survey of analysts had forecast a 0.2% decline for May.
  • On a year-on-year basis, industrial output increased by 1.1% in May.
  • The Italian government has lowered its economic growth forecast for the current year and next.

Italian industrial output experienced a setback in May, falling by 0.3% from the previous month, according to official data released on Friday. This decline ended a three-month period of positive growth and signals a renewed slowdown in the manufacturing sector of Europe's third-largest economy. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had anticipated a 0.2% decrease, indicating that the actual fall was steeper than expected.

Despite the monthly contraction, industrial production for the March-to-May period showed a 0.9% increase compared to the preceding three months. The national statistics agency, ISTAT, also slightly revised down the April month-on-month figure to a 0.4% rise from the initially reported 0.5% increase.

On a year-on-year basis, adjusted for working days, industrial output grew by 1.1% in May. This figure was slightly below the forecast of a 1.3% increase and mirrored the 1.1% rise seen in April, which was also revised downward from its initial report.

The economic outlook for Italy remains uncertain, with continuing turmoil in the Middle East contributing to concerns about rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions. Reflecting these challenges, the Italian government reduced its economic growth projections to 0.6% for both the current year and the next, down from earlier targets of 0.7% and 0.8% respectively.

Frequently asked questions

Italian industrial output fell by 0.3% month-on-month in May.

Industrial output had increased for the three months prior to May.

On a work day-adjusted year-on-year basis, industrial output rose by 1.1% in May.

The government cut its economic growth outlook to 0.6% for this year and next, citing increased energy costs and geopolitical tensions.

What Happens Next

01Monitor future industrial output data for signs of recovery or further decline.
02Observe the impact of geopolitical tensions and energy costs on economic growth forecasts.

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Cadence

How It Developed

Italian industrial output fell 0.3% month-on-month in May.
The May decline followed three consecutive months of increases.
April's month-on-month rise was revised down to 0.4%.
Year-on-year industrial output rose 1.1% in May, below the forecast 1.3% increase.
The government has cut its economic growth outlook for the year due to energy costs and geopolitical tensions.

Sources

T1
Italy industrial output ends three-month positive streak with May fallReuters

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