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Greater Manchester growth fails to lift outer boroughs' earnings

Created at 2 Jul · 11:05 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

A new report suggests that despite "exceptional economic growth" in Greater Manchester, earnings and income growth have not translated to outer boroughs. High inactivity and weak productivity outside the city center are cited as key factors.

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Key Numbers

0.6 percentage pointsaverage disposable income growth outperformance in Manchester city vs national a
0.7 percentage pointslag in growth for Salford and Bolton vs national trend
25 per centrise in long-term sickness across Greater Manchester
2.1 per centaverage annual productivity growth in Manchester city (1991-2007)
1.2 per centaverage annual productivity growth in Manchester city (since 2008)

Who's Involved

Andy Burnham
Former Greater Manchester mayor, credited with growth gains and advocating for devolution
Oxford Economics
Research firm that produced the report on Greater Manchester's growth
Centre for Cities
Think tank that praised Manchester's transport frameworks
Greater Manchester growth fails to lift outer boroughs' earnings

↳ Why This Matters

The findings challenge the narrative of uniform economic success in Greater Manchester, highlighting significant disparities in income and earnings growth between the city center and outer boroughs. This raises questions about the effectiveness of devolution strategies in achieving equitable growth across a region and impacts the political messaging of local leaders.

Key facts

  • Greater Manchester's economic growth has not resulted in higher earnings or income for residents in outer boroughs, according to Oxford Economics.
  • Boroughs such as Salford and Bolton have seen income growth lag behind the national trend.
  • High rates of economic inactivity, particularly long-term sickness, are contributing to the disparity.
  • Weak transport links and a small labor market are cited as barriers to growth spreading across the region.
  • Manchester city center's productivity growth has slowed since the 2008 financial crisis.

Greater Manchester's narrative of "exceptional economic growth" has not translated into widespread improvements in earnings or income for residents in its outer boroughs, according to research by Oxford Economics. The report suggests that while the city center has seen some gains, areas like Salford and Bolton have lagged behind the national average.

Economists attribute this disparity to several factors, including high levels of economic inactivity, a rise in long-term sickness, and insufficient productivity growth away from the city center. Poor transport connections and a relatively small labor market are also identified as impediments to the spread of economic benefits across the entire region.

Despite these challenges, the report notes that Manchester city's average disposable income growth has outperformed the national average. However, productivity growth in the city has slowed since the 2008 financial crisis, though it remains higher than the UK and London averages. Conversely, the think tank Centre for Cities has lauded Manchester's transport initiatives, such as the Bee Network buses and tram lines, as a "devolution success story."

Frequently asked questions

The report found that Greater Manchester's economic growth has not led to higher earnings or income in its outer boroughs, despite overall regional growth.

High levels of economic inactivity, a rise in long-term sickness, weak productivity, and poor transport connections are cited as key reasons.

Manchester city center has seen better income growth compared to the national average, while boroughs like Salford and Bolton have lagged.

The Centre for Cities considers new transport frameworks, like the Bee Network, a "devolution success story" that has improved the city center.

What Happens Next

01Further analysis may be conducted on the specific transport and labor market interventions needed in outer boroughs.
02Political discussions regarding devolution and regional investment may be influenced by these findings.

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Cadence

How It Developed

A report by Oxford Economics indicates Greater Manchester's economic growth has not led to higher earnings or income in outer boroughs.
The report highlights high levels of economic inactivity and a lack of productivity gains away from Manchester's city center as reasons for lagging household income.
While Manchester city's average disposable income growth outperformed the national average, boroughs like Salford and Bolton lagged behind.
Poor transport connections and a small labor market are suggested as reasons for growth failing to spread across the region.
Productivity growth in Manchester has been weaker since the financial crisis compared to earlier periods, though still higher than the UK and London.
The Centre for Cities think tank highlighted improvements in Manchester's city center due to new transport frameworks, calling it a "devolution success story".

Sources

T1
‘Good growth in every postcode’? Not in Greater ManchesterCity AM

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