Key facts
- Global merchandise trade growth may be starting to slow, according to the WTO.
- The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer index fell from 102.3 in January to 101.7.
- The index remains above its baseline of 100, indicating trade volume is still above trend.
- The Middle East conflict caused widespread disruption to trade.
- Surging demand for AI-related electronic components has partly offset negative impacts.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has indicated that global merchandise trade growth may be starting to slow. The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer, which predicts trade developments two to three months ahead, saw its index fall from 102.3 in January to 101.7. While this suggests a potential weakening, the index remains above its baseline value of 100, indicating that trade volume is still above trend. The report noted that global merchandise trade had shown resilience in the first half of 2026, despite widespread disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. The negative impact of the conflict may have been partly offset by surging demand for electronic components related to artificial intelligence. Previously, the WTO had projected world trade in goods growth to slow markedly to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025, with further deceleration possible if the Middle East war continued to push energy prices higher and disrupt global transport. The electronic components index showed a rise firmly above trend at 105.5, while the agricultural raw materials index was slightly below trend. Air freight and container shipping were growing at a slower rate than a few months ago, but were still above trend at 102.2 and 102.4 respectively. The report stated that, on balance, the indices show signs of resilience, signalling relatively stable global merchandise trade growth.