Key facts
- Brexit has significantly altered Scotland's political landscape, increasing support for independence.
- Scottish voters overwhelmingly backed remaining in the EU in 2016, but were taken out.
- Support for Scottish independence is currently around 50%, with some polls showing 55%.
- Economic impacts of Brexit on Scotland include an estimated £3.3bn in lost revenue and £250 added to food bills.
- The SNP's recent election performance was its weakest since 2007, failing to secure a majority on an independence platform.
The decision for the UK to leave the European Union has profoundly reshaped Scotland's political landscape, significantly bolstering support for independence, according to former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale. In her view, the Brexit vote created a "frame around fairness" for many in Scotland, as the country comprehensively backed Remain in 2016 but was still taken out of the EU.
Dugdale suggested that the UK government's adoption of a "hard Brexit" swayed undecided Scottish voters who had previously been hesitant about independence. She recalled telling then-First Minister Nicola Sturgeon on the morning of the Brexit result, "This changes everything," believing many Scots felt faced with a choice between an independent Scotland in Europe or a Brexit-dominated Britain.
While the expected "tidal wave" of support for independence did not fully materialize, Dugdale argued that Brexit sustained support, which might otherwise have declined. Ruth Davidson, who led the Scottish Conservatives and the Remain campaign in 2016, also expressed shock at the Leave vote and recalled Sturgeon's desire to move forward with a second independence referendum.
However, the salience of independence support has been affected by subsequent political crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and economic instability. Davidson noted that for many voters, concerns about the economy and public services took precedence over the UK's relationship with the EU. This was reflected in the 2017 general election, where the SNP lost seats after pushing for a second referendum.
More recently, support for independence surged again in 2019-2020, partly in contrast to Boris Johnson's leadership. However, economic decline and fears about the NHS now dominate the political agenda. Estimates suggest Brexit has cost Scotland £3.3 billion in lost revenue and added £250 to food bills annually.
Despite efforts by current First Minister John Swinney to center the recent Holyrood elections on independence and rejoining the EU, the SNP failed to secure an overall majority, achieving its lowest vote share since 2007. Dugdale, now an associate director at Glasgow University, voted SNP in protest over Brexit and believes that prolonged austerity and declining trust in political institutions are driving voter anger and disillusionment.