Key facts
- The AfD is polling at around 41% in Saxony-Anhalt and 36% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of upcoming regional elections.
- Experts suggest the AfD's strength in eastern Germany stems from a lingering sense of economic disadvantage and neglect by the political establishment.
- Studies indicate that areas with a higher proportion of older residents and a younger, educated population leaving tend to show stronger AfD support.
- Economists warn that AfD policies, such as withdrawal from the Euro and EU, could significantly harm the economically weaker eastern German states.
- DIW Berlin estimates that Saxony-Anhalt could lose €1,600 per capita annually and 10,000 jobs if AfD policies were implemented.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is experiencing a surge in support in eastern German states, leading in pre-election polls despite skepticism from economists. In Saxony-Anhalt, where elections are scheduled for September 6, the AfD is polling around 41%, and in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, voting on September 20, it stands at 36%.
While in western Germany the AfD's support is often linked to anti-immigration sentiment, experts suggest that in eastern Germany, the party's appeal is more rooted in a shared legacy of economic disadvantage. Decades after reunification, many in the east feel left behind, citing issues such as shrinking populations, labor shortages, higher unemployment, and lower incomes compared to the west.
Oliver Holtemoeller from the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) noted that labor is a scarce factor in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's future, with GDP per capita at about 76% of the national average. A study by DIW Berlin indicates that AfD support is significantly higher in regions where younger, educated individuals are leaving and the proportion of residents over 60 is greater.
Despite these economic challenges, some young eastern Germans express a growing sense of optimism and a desire for change, as exemplified by rapper Pablo Himmelspach and Peter Holdt, who created a mobile 'Disco Bus' to bring activities to rural youth. However, Guido Friebel of the Rockwool Foundation Berlin points out that many in eastern Germany feel their concerns are not being heard by politicians.
Economists like Marcel Fratzscher, president of DIW Berlin, warn that AfD policies, which include potential withdrawal from the Euro and the EU, would be detrimental to the economically less developed east. DIW estimates that Saxony-Anhalt could lose substantial income and jobs under such policies. Conversely, AfD deputy chair Hans-Thomas Tillschneider argues that implementing measures like ending CO2 levies and lifting sanctions on Russia would lead to an economic boom.
Innovative approaches, such as internationalizing university programs at the University of Rostock, are being used to attract and retain skilled labor. Programme director Sascha Kosleck hopes that international students will remain in the region, but expresses concern over potential AfD policies that could charge non-EU students tuition fees. Business owners like Lars Gottschligg, who runs renewable energy projects, also face uncertainty, though he believes economic sense will prevail regardless of government.