Key facts
- SpaceX's stock closed up over 19% on its first day of public trading.
- Over 95% of SpaceX shares are currently held by insiders and subject to lock-up restrictions.
- Staggered lock-up expirations are scheduled to significantly increase the available float in the coming months.
- A substantial portion of shares will become tradable between September and November, potentially driving volatility.
- Elon Musk's stake is locked until June 2027, while other insider shares unlock by December.
SpaceX has officially transitioned to a public company, marking its debut with a significant first-day stock surge of over 19%. However, experts caution that the true test for the company's stock performance will emerge as its lock-up periods expire, allowing early investors and employees to sell their holdings.
Chan Ahn, founder and CEO of private equity firm Tessera and former equity derivatives structuring head at major investment banks, emphasized that the lock-up calendar will be a key driver of SpaceX's stock performance over the next six months. Despite the historic size of the IPO, the majority of SpaceX's shares—over 95%—remain locked up, with only about 4.3% in public float. This includes Elon Musk's substantial 42% stake, which is restricted for the first year.
SpaceX employs a staggered lock-up schedule, differing from the typical 180-day period. Shares will be released in increments at predetermined timelines and milestones, including specific dates like 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post-IPO, as well as upon the company's first two earnings calls. A notable unlock is also tied to the stock rising 30% before the first earnings report. By December, approximately 58% of the company's shares are expected to be tradable, a thirteenfold increase in the float within six months.
Ahn noted that while the staggered releases are a strategic move, a significant concentration of unlocks is anticipated between September and November. This period could lead to increased stock volatility as a large volume of shares becomes available. He suggested that early investors may seek to monetize their stakes due to the long period they have held shares privately, irrespective of their long-term outlook for SpaceX.