Key facts
- SpaceX's first earnings report is scheduled for Tuesday.
- Options markets are pricing in a potential $225 billion swing in SpaceX's value.
- Traders are pricing in a roughly 15% move in SpaceX shares, with a bearish tilt.
- SpaceX shares have fallen 43% from their peak since their IPO.
- The company's market capitalization is $1.5 trillion.
- SpaceX is expected to report a quarterly loss before interest and taxes of $1.55 billion on revenue of nearly $7 billion.
- A lockup expiration on August 6 could allow the sale of over 911 million shares.
- Short interest in SpaceX is near a record high, with approximately 63% of its free float on loan.
SpaceX is bracing for its first-ever earnings report, with options market traders anticipating a significant valuation swing of approximately $225 billion. The market is pricing in a roughly 15% move in the company's shares, leaning towards a bearish outlook, according to data from options analytics service ORATS. This heightened volatility is attributed to the company's limited trading history, its substantial market capitalization of $1.5 trillion, and uncertainty surrounding its ability to support its valuation with its maiden earnings.
SpaceX shares have experienced a notable decline, falling 43% from a peak of $201.80 shortly after its June 12 debut, and are currently trading below their IPO price. The company is expected to report a quarterly loss before interest and taxes of $1.55 billion on revenue of nearly $7 billion. Analysts note that the cost of options has been driven up by the expectation of volatility, making hedging expensive.
The upcoming earnings report coincides with a lockup expiration on August 6, which could allow the sale of approximately 911.5 million shares owned by insiders, employees, and early investors, potentially adding further pressure to the stock. Short interest in SpaceX remains near a record high, with about 63% of its free float on loan, indicating significant bearish sentiment. However, some traders are speculating on a rebound, with healthy demand for call options, suggesting ongoing faith in Elon Musk's leadership and the company's future prospects.