Key facts
- Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket experienced record trading volumes during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
- Combined volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $44.8 billion in June, a 75% increase.
- Polymarket's World Cup winner market has traded over $4 billion, with France favored at 39% odds.
- Kalshi's monthly volume in June was $31.5 billion, and its World Cup winner market attracted over $832 million.
- Polymarket operates on-chain using Polygon and USDC, while Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and fiat-focused.
- Legal challenges from US state authorities accuse Kalshi and Polymarket of offering unlicensed sports betting.
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have experienced a significant surge in trading volume during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, challenging traditional sportsbooks. Combined volume on both platforms reached $44.8 billion in June, a 75% increase. Polymarket's World Cup winner market alone has surpassed $4 billion in trading volume, with France currently favored at 39% odds to win the tournament.
Kalshi reported $31.5 billion in monthly volume for June, and its World Cup winner market attracted over $832 million in bets. Polymarket's non-US platform contributed $10.26 billion to its monthly total. The platforms are seeing significant activity, with projections suggesting over $50 billion in global wagering for the tournament. Polymarket operates on-chain using Polygon and USDC, while Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and fiat-focused for US users.
Legal pressure remains a concern, as over a dozen US state authorities have sued both Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of offering unlicensed sports betting. These platforms, however, argue that federal regulation takes priority. The outcomes of these legal battles could potentially reach the Supreme Court.