Key facts
- Combined trading volume on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket surged to $44.8 billion in June.
- The FIFA World Cup was the primary driver of this volume increase.
- Kalshi's World Cup winner market alone attracted over $832 million in bets.
- Kalshi's trading volume increased by 87.4% to $31.5 billion in June.
- Polymarket's platforms collectively saw significant growth, with its non-US platform reaching $10.26 billion and Polymarket US reaching $3.04 billion in June.
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have seen a dramatic increase in user activity and trading volume, largely driven by the ongoing FIFA World Cup. Combined monthly trading volume across Kalshi, Polymarket, and its US-regulated counterpart, Polymarket US, reached $44.8 billion in June, a 75% jump from May's $25.66 billion. The World Cup has become the primary catalyst for this surge, with individual match contracts on Polymarket drawing between $500,000 and $2 million in volume.
Kalshi experienced the most significant growth, with its trading volume rising 87.4% to $31.5 billion in June. The platform's market for the World Cup winner alone garnered over $832 million in bets. Polymarket's non-US platform saw a 45% increase to $10.26 billion, while Polymarket US grew to $3.04 billion. These figures highlight the growing appeal of prediction markets as a way for users to engage with major real-world events.
Fortune's data collection indicated that Kalshi's World Cup trading volume reached $2.9 billion, already surpassing other major sports events like March Madness. Polymarket reported $2.5 billion in cumulative trading volume for World Cup wagers since its launch last July, with soccer-related trading on its DeFi platform exceeding $5 billion. Robinhood's joint venture, Rothera, also reported executing over 500 million contracts since the beginning of June.
These platforms allow users to bet on various outcomes, from sports to other real-world events, often through mobile applications. The current tournament has solidified the position of prediction markets in the US, offering an accessible alternative to traditional sportsbooks and fantasy leagues. However, these markets face ongoing legal scrutiny, with several state authorities suing Kalshi and Polymarket for allegedly offering unlicensed sports betting, a claim the platforms and the CFTC contest.