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Credit investors warn of shakeout on risky deals

Created at 3 Jun · 3:25 PM6 sources↑ Market-relevant5 events
IN SHORT

Credit market participants are warning of an impending shakeout affecting leveraged deals and direct-lending funds, which have seen sustained investor withdrawals. Concerns are mounting over the viability of past deals, with one expert citing a backlog of defaults independent of broader economic factors.

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Who's Involved

Holly Kim
co-founder of Glendon Capital, warns of defaults in private credit
Steven Tananbaum
Founder and CIO of GoldenTree Asset Management
Credit Titans
warn of a shakeout in credit markets
Credit investors warn of shakeout on risky deals

↳ Why This Matters

The warnings from credit market participants suggest potential distress in the private credit sector, which could impact investors and companies reliant on this form of financing. The mention of a backlog of defaults indicates underlying issues within the market that may not be immediately apparent from broader economic indicators.

Key facts

  • Credit market participants warn of an impending shakeout.
  • The shakeout is expected to affect leveraged deals and direct-lending funds.
  • Investor withdrawals from these funds have been ongoing.
  • Concerns exist about the viability of deals made in prior years.
  • Holly Kim stated private credit faces a backlog of defaults.

Credit market participants, referred to as 'credit titans,' are warning of an impending shakeout. This shakeout is expected to impact leveraged deals and direct-lending funds, which have been experiencing sustained investor withdrawals. Concerns are mounting regarding the viability of deals originated in previous years. Holly Kim, co-founder of Glendon Capital, stated that the private credit industry faces a significant 'backlog of defaults,' independent of broader economic dislocations or inflation-related factors. She made these remarks at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum in New York. GoldenTree Asset Management Founder and CIO Steven Tananbaum also stated at the forum that the credit market has "languished" but acknowledged pockets of opportunity.

Frequently asked questions

A shakeout in credit markets refers to a period of consolidation or distress where weaker deals, companies, or funds are forced out due to financial pressure, often triggered by market downturns or sustained investor withdrawals.

Leveraged deals are transactions, often acquisitions, financed with a significant amount of borrowed money (debt). The leverage amplifies both potential returns and risks.

Direct-lending funds are investment vehicles that provide loans directly to companies, typically bypassing traditional banks. They are a form of private credit.

Holly Kim stated that the private credit industry stands to see a big 'backlog of defaults,' separate from broader economic issues or inflation.

What Happens Next

01The timing and scale of the expected 'shakeout' remain to be seen.

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How It Developed

4 Jun · 6:00 AM
Moody's leaders discuss "bad vibes" in US private credit, noting a shift to stricter risk discipline.
Moody's Talks - Emerging Markets Decoded via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 4:35 PM
GoldenTree's Steven Tananbaum acknowledges a difficult credit market but sees potential opportunities.
Bloomberg | Technology via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 3:49 PM
Holly Kim of Glendon Capital warns of a "pipeline of defaults" in private credit, independent of economic factors.
Bloomberg | Markets via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 3:00 PM
Credit market titans anticipate a shakeout for leveraged deals and direct-lending funds facing investor withdrawals.
Bloomberg | Markets via PiQSuite
3 Jun · 12:28 PM
Pimco's Youssef Karoui identifies war and AI as new risks to private credit, adding to existing concerns.
Bloomberg | Markets via PiQSuite

Sources

T1
Credit Titans Warn of Shakeout on Deals That 'Don't Make Sense'm.piqsuite.com
T1
Private Credit Faces 'Pipeline of Defaults,' Holly Kim Saysm.piqsuite.com
T1
GoldenTree's Tananbaum Says It's a 'Tough Time' to Be in Creditm.piqsuite.com
T1
Private Credit: “Bad Vibes” and the Changing Conversationm.piqsuite.com
T1
Private Credit Endangered by War and AI, Pimco's Karoui Saysm.piqsuite.com
T1
War and AI Endanger Private Credit, Pimco's Karoui Saysm.piqsuite.com

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