Americans wagered up to $34 billion on offshore prediction markets: study

Key facts

• Americans wagered up to $34 billion on offshore prediction markets in a 12-month period.
• The volume of wagers on offshore prediction markets could grow to $133 billion by 2030.
• Prediction markets are seeing a significant surge in trading volume.
• Interest in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is driving trading on prediction markets.
• Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen event-based trading reach $1 billion.
• Quantitative firms are attracted to prediction markets to exploit inefficiencies.

Americans have wagered as much as $34 billion on offshore prediction markets within a single 12-month period, a study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets has found. The research further estimates that this volume could expand to $133 billion by the year 2030, indicating substantial projected growth.

Prediction markets are currently experiencing a notable increase in trading activity. This surge is significantly influenced by heightened interest in upcoming major events, including the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have reported that event-based trading has reached $1 billion. This growing market is also attracting the attention of quantitative firms, which are looking to identify and exploit potential market inefficiencies for profit.

The substantial figures suggest a growing appetite for prediction market participation among Americans, with projections pointing towards a significant expansion in the coming years. The involvement of sophisticated trading entities like quantitative firms indicates a maturing market that may attract further institutional interest.