Key facts
- U.S.-linked wallets traded $571 million in political markets on Polymarket in the past year.
- This volume is higher than any other country, with Hong Kong second at $422 million.
- Polymarket blocks U.S. users by IP address, but VPNs and crypto wallets allow access.
- Americans traded geopolitics markets more heavily than elections, a reversal of the platform-wide trend.
- U.S. traders did not demonstrate a superior ability to predict market outcomes compared to other users.
Despite being blocked by IP address, U.S.-linked wallets traded approximately $571 million in notional value across Polymarket's political markets in the 12 months leading up to July 5, 2026, according to an on-chain analysis firm called Allium. This figure represents the largest national trading volume, surpassing Hong Kong's $422 million.
Polymarket, which cannot legally serve U.S. users, employs IP blocking. However, the report argues that the platform's reliance on cryptocurrency rails, including wallets and stablecoins without intermediaries, makes these blocks largely ineffective. Users can bypass restrictions using VPNs and existing crypto wallets. Allium's analysis, which tags wallets based on on-chain behavior rather than IP addresses, found that only about 6% of Polymarket's political market wallets could be definitively country-tagged, suggesting the figures are directional.
The data also revealed a distinct trading pattern among American users. Geopolitics constituted 46% of U.S. notional volume, compared to 36% platform-wide, while elections accounted for 16% of U.S. volume versus 32% globally. Five of the twelve largest markets traded by U.S. users were related to the Iran war, and the single largest market, valued at $20.8 million, was a novelty bet on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit.
On resolved markets, U.S. wallets backed the winner 81.9% of the time, a marginal difference compared to the 80.3% success rate for other users, indicating no significant predictive edge. Despite betting more boldly, such as placing 53% of their volume on a U.S. invasion of Iran when the rest of the market was at 26%, their success rate remained similar. The report suggests that access restrictions have pushed significant U.S. political market activity offshore, making it visible on-chain but beyond U.S. regulatory oversight, with a preference for markets that U.S. regulations typically restrict.