Key facts
- Kalshi recorded a record $9.4 billion in trading volume in June.
- Polymarket International's trading volume reached approximately $4.3 billion in June.
- The FIFA World Cup significantly boosted activity in prediction markets.
- US states are attempting to regulate prediction markets, but the CFTC asserts federal authority.
- European regulators view some event contracts as potentially falling under binary options restrictions.
Kalshi achieved a record-breaking month for trading volume in June, largely propelled by heightened activity surrounding the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup. Data from DefiLlama indicates that Kalshi facilitated nearly $9.4 billion in trades during June, a significant increase from approximately $5.3 billion in May. Similarly, Polymarket International saw its trading volume rise to about $4.3 billion from roughly $3.5 billion in the preceding month.
The current FIFA World Cup, notable for being the first to include 48 teams, has become the primary catalyst for trading on prediction markets. CNBC reported that the tournament's progression, particularly its knockout stages, is generating substantial trading interest. Dune Analytics data highlights record notional trading volumes on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Specific matches within the tournament have drawn considerable attention. For instance, Canada's Round of 16 match against Morocco generated over $48 million in trading volume on Kalshi and over $26.8 million on Polymarket. The United States' Round of 16 match also saw significant engagement, with Kalshi's market on advancement volume exceeding $2.1 million and a comparable Polymarket market attracting around $1.6 million.
These record volumes emerge as prediction markets face increasing legal and regulatory scrutiny in the United States. By March, nearly a dozen US states had initiated actions against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, aiming to halt their operations or classify them under existing gambling laws. However, federal regulators have pushed back, with CFTC Chair Michael Selig asserting the agency's sole authority over commodity derivatives, including prediction markets, and vowing legal challenges against states attempting to overstep.
The debate extends to Congress, where casino operators and tribal groups have advocated for removing sports-event contracts from CFTC oversight. Meanwhile, Europe is adopting a different stance, with the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) reminding firms that many event contracts might already be subject to restrictions on binary options, emphasizing that regulation depends on product characteristics rather than labels.