Key facts
- Prediction markets surpassed onchain gambling in volume for the first time in Q1 2026, reaching $36.6 billion.
- Onchain gambling volume was $14 billion in Q1 2026, near its all-time high.
- Onchain gambling reached $51 billion in 2025, while prediction markets reached $54 billion.
- TRM Labs attributes the resilience of onchain gambling to a loyal user base and stablecoin flows.
- Over 2 million personal wallets have interacted with gambling platforms since January 2022.
Prediction markets surpassed onchain gambling in volume for the first time in the first quarter of 2026, with $36.6 billion in activity compared to $14 billion for gambling, according to a report by TRM Labs.
Despite the shift, onchain gambling remained near record levels, holding steady at $14 billion in Q1 2026 after reaching an all-time high of $15 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Both sectors demonstrated resilience during a broader crypto market correction.
A TRM Labs spokesperson attributed the sustained gambling volumes to a "sticky and expanding activity of a loyal user base," suggesting consistent user engagement can insulate the industry from market downturns and drive growth.
While both gambling platforms and prediction markets increasingly utilize shared stablecoin infrastructure, TRM Labs highlighted distinct financial crime risks. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi face scrutiny over insider trading, whereas gambling platforms such as Stake, WINk, and Rollbit are more exposed to money laundering risks.
Between January 2022 and March 2026, over 2 million personal wallets interacted with gambling platforms. Although high-value users, termed "High Rollers," accounted for 91.8% of the total gambling volume driven by personal wallets, the fastest-growing user categories included "Casual Bettors" and "Daily Grinders," indicating broader user base expansion.