Key facts
- An interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran has been announced.
- Bitcoin climbed to nearly $66,000 following the geopolitical news.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady, with a new dot plot to be released.
- U.S. equity markets will be closed on Friday for the Juneteenth holiday.
- The CFTC has opened a public comment period for proposed rules on prediction markets.
- Industry groups are preparing responses to U.S. House proposals on digital asset taxation.
Crypto markets are anticipating a week influenced by geopolitical developments and a Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Traders are hopeful for a reprieve from months of geopolitical anxiety that has impacted risk assets, following an announcement of an interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. Bitcoin saw a notable climb to nearly $66,000, with cryptocurrency-linked equities also advancing in pre-market trading.
However, a note of caution persists, as previous ceasefires have faltered. The Federal Reserve, under new chair Kevin Warsh, is expected to announce its interest-rate decision on Wednesday, with forecasts suggesting no change to the current level. The introduction of a fresh dot plot, which outlines policymakers' interest-rate projections, combined with a shortened trading week due to Friday's Juneteenth holiday, suggests a potential decline in liquidity.
The week's economic data calendar and the Fed's guidance will be crucial in determining whether cryptocurrencies can build on the apparent geopolitical tailwind and achieve a definitive recovery. In regulatory news, the CFTC has opened a 45-day public comment window for its proposed rulemaking targeting prediction markets. Industry groups are also preparing formal responses to the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee regarding digital asset tax proposals.
Key macroeconomic events include the U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index and Initial Jobless Claims. Token unlocks for Arbitrum (ARB) and Kaito (KAITO) are scheduled, alongside governance votes for Cratos, Rocket Pool, and Orderly. Token launches for C8ntinuum (CTM) and Botchain (METAKPK) are also on the calendar. The Berlin Blockchain Festival is ongoing.
In market movements, U.S. equities saw gains on Thursday, led by chipmakers. The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.5%, and the Dow added 0.1%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached a record high, boosted by Intel's partnership with Apple. Nvidia and Micron also saw gains. Accenture and Kroger experienced declines after issuing revised outlooks.
European equities were mixed, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.3% while the Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, and CAC saw modest gains. The FTSE 100 declined 1.0%. Energy shares like Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies fell over 2% amid lower oil prices. Capgemini dropped 8.9% following Accenture's warning.