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Crypto Surges on Cooler Inflation Data; Fed Chair Warsh Cautions Optimism

Created at 15 Jul · 12:31 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Cryptocurrencies experienced a significant rally following a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing notable gains. However, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh urged caution, stating that the inflation surge is not yet over.

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Key Numbers

3.5%annual CPI rate
2.6%annual core CPI rate
$64,600Bitcoin price
$1,880Ethereum price
$300 millionshort crypto positions liquidated
6%odds of a July rate cut
80%odds of at least 1 rate hike by year-end
$50Mizuho's price target for Circle
$86 millionPUMP tokens hitting the market
$181 millionBitcoin ETF net inflows
$58 millionEthereum ETF net inflows

Who's Involved

Tyler Warner
author of the Morning Minute newsletter
Kevin Warsh
Fed Chair testifying to Congress
SEC Crypto Task Force
met with Hyperliquid's Policy Center
JPMorgan
noted threat to Circle's USDC economics
Mizuho
downgraded Circle to underperform
Circle
signed MOU with JCB for stablecoin payments
Coinbase
reported AI-assisted code generation
Pump.fun
completed first major token unlock
Binance
aiming to become a crypto 'super-app'
Crypto Surges on Cooler Inflation Data; Fed Chair Warsh Cautions Optimism

↳ Why This Matters

The cooler inflation data suggests a potential shift in monetary policy, which could benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies. However, Fed Chair Warsh's cautious remarks indicate that the central bank remains vigilant against inflation, creating uncertainty for future rate decisions and market direction.

Key facts

  • June CPI decreased by 0.4% month-over-month, bringing the annual rate to 3.5%.
  • Core CPI remained flat month-over-month, cooling to 2.6% annually.
  • Bitcoin surged past $64,000 and Ethereum rose to $1,884 following the inflation data.
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh expressed caution about declaring victory over inflation.
  • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $181 million in net inflows on Tuesday.

Cryptocurrencies experienced a significant rally following a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing notable gains. The June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2020 and bringing the annual rate down to 3.5%, below the 3.8% expected. Core CPI also cooled to 2.6% annually and was flat on the month.

In response, Bitcoin surged from around $62,000 to reclaim $64,900, while Ethereum rose 7% to $1,884. Approximately $300 million in short crypto positions were liquidated as the market reacted positively to the inflation data. This print is the last major inflation reading before the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, potentially undermining the case for further rate hikes.

However, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in his first congressional testimony since taking over from Powell, urged caution. While acknowledging that the inflation surge of the past five years could become a thing of the past with correct policy, he stated that it is not his view that 'mission accomplished' has been achieved. Warsh reminded lawmakers that the committee has 'no tolerance' for persistently elevated inflation, suggesting a hawkish stance and leaving open the possibility of a rate hike later in the year.

In other crypto-related news, the SEC Crypto Task Force met with Hyperliquid's Policy Center to discuss regulation. JPMorgan noted that Hyperliquid's growth poses a threat to Circle's USDC economics, leading Mizuho to downgrade Circle to underperform with a $50 price target due to competition from Open USD. Despite this, Circle signed a memorandum of understanding with JCB, Japan's largest card network, to explore stablecoin payments. Coinbase reported that a significant portion of its code is now AI-assisted. Bitcoin ETFs saw $181 million in net inflows, and Ethereum ETFs received $58 million. Pump.fun completed its first major token unlock, releasing $86 million in PUMP tokens, and Binance is expanding its services to become a crypto 'super-app'.

Frequently asked questions

The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% month-over-month, with the annual rate dropping to 3.5%. Core CPI cooled to 2.6% annually and was flat on the month.

Crypto prices surged, with Bitcoin reclaiming $64,900 and Ethereum rising to $1,884. Approximately $300 million in short positions were liquidated.

Warsh urged caution, stating that it is not his view that 'mission accomplished' has been achieved and that the committee has 'no tolerance' for elevated inflation.

The odds of a July rate cut fell significantly, but the possibility of a rate hike by the end of the year remains, as indicated by Warsh's comments.

What Happens Next

01The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting in two weeks may provide further guidance on monetary policy.
02The SEC Crypto Task Force continues its discussions on crypto regulation.
03Circle and JCB will explore stablecoin payment integration.

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Cadence

How It Developed

June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, with the annual rate dropping to 3.5%.
Core CPI cooled to 2.6% month-over-month, remaining flat.
Crypto prices surged immediately after the CPI print, with Bitcoin reclaiming $64,900 and Ethereum reaching $1,884.
Approximately $300 million in short crypto positions were liquidated.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified to Congress, stating that persistent inflation will be a thing of the past if policy is managed correctly.
Warsh pushed back on optimism regarding the CPI data, stating it is not his view that 'mission accomplished' has been achieved.
The odds of a July rate cut by the Fed fell significantly following the CPI data and Warsh's commentary.
The SEC Crypto Task Force met with Hyperliquid's Policy Center to discuss crypto regulation.

Sources

T1
Morning Minute: Crypto Rips on Cool CPIDecrypt

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