Key facts
- Over $10.8 billion in Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana options are expiring.
- Bitcoin price has recovered above $60,000.
- Traders are positioning for potential recovery despite bearish sentiment indicated by put/call ratios.
- Macroeconomic factors such as falling oil prices and a weaker dollar may support a crypto market rebound.
- Institutional investors are awaiting market cues post-expiry.
- Ethereum, XRP, and Solana also show signs of price recovery.
The cryptocurrency market is showing tentative signs of recovery as traders prepare for a significant options expiry event. Over $10.8 billion in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) options are set to expire, a period often associated with increased volatility.
Bitcoin's price has climbed over 2% to above $60,000 in Asian trading hours, rebounding from a recent drop to $58,000. This recovery follows nearly $35 million in short liquidations recorded across the crypto market in the past few hours.
According to Deribit data, approximately 151,000 BTC options with a notional value of $9.3 billion are expiring. While the overall put/call ratio on Deribit is 0.63, the 24-hour put volume has surged, pushing the ratio to 1.24, indicating bearish sentiment among some traders. However, traders are adjusting positions, increasing implied volatility and skew, suggesting hedging for downside protection and an expectation of a recovery phase post-expiry. The max pain price for Bitcoin options is $70,000, though a significant portion is likely to expire below $59,500. The purchase of $65,000 call options for July 3 expiry signals bullishness for the coming days. Positive macroeconomic factors, including in-line Core PCE inflation, falling oil prices, and a weakening US dollar index (DXY) and Treasury yields, could further support a crypto market rebound.
Institutions and large investors, or whales, have not yet fully committed to further downside bets, awaiting settlement cues for market direction. For Ethereum, over 1 billion ETH options valued at more than $1.5 billion are expiring, with a put/call ratio of 0.50 on Deribit, but a 24-hour ratio of 1.33 suggests bearish sentiment. The max pain point is $2,000, significantly above the current price of $1,550. Despite recent drops, ETH has rebounded 3% with increased trading volume, and treasuries like Bitmine Immersion and SharpLink are buying on dips.
XRP faces pressure with over 41,000 options worth nearly $43 million expiring. While the put/call ratio is 0.71 on Deribit, the 24-hour ratio is 1.25, indicating bearishness. The max pain price is $1.30, above the current $1.03. Positive whale flows suggest accumulation, potentially triggering a recovery, especially with Ripple's MiCA compliance.
Solana has $57 million in options expiring, with 83,000 contracts. The put/call ratio is 0.99, suggesting overall bullishness among options traders awaiting cues from Bitcoin and Ethereum expiries. The max pain point is $80, with traders targeting $70. SOL has rebounded 6% to $68 with increased trading volume.