Key facts
- Bitcoin is trading around $63,020, down 1.7% on the day.
- The price is approximately 50% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October.
- Over 65% of coins moving to exchanges are from long-term holders realizing losses.
- Broader market risk aversion is contributing to the decline in Bitcoin's price.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced marginal recovery in inflows after recent outflows.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $63,000, experiencing a decline attributed to a broader market retreat from risk assets and persistent selling by long-term holders who are realizing losses. The cryptocurrency fell 1.7% on the day to approximately $63,020, and is now about 50% below its record high of $126,080 set in October.
Analysts suggest that the current sell-off is driven by a cooling macro risk appetite rather than a deterioration of crypto-specific fundamentals. Global stock markets have seen corrections, and there is a deleveraging in semiconductor and AI-related assets, which is also impacting institutional exposure to Bitcoin. While the derivatives market shows no signs of crowded leverage, the selling pressure is concentrated in spot markets.
A significant factor contributing to the price pressure is the activity of long-time owners. Data indicates that over 65% of coins flowing into exchanges are from long-term holders who are selling at a loss. This pattern is likened to past bear-market phases where this cohort dominated selling before eventually exhausting their positions.
Despite a tentative return of demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with inflows recovering slightly after recent outflows, the market has not yet found a floor. While some interpret this return to inflows as a sign of longer-term investors gradually re-entering the market, it has not been sufficient to significantly lift Bitcoin's price.
However, there are early indications that the heaviest selling may be nearing its end. Some analysts suggest that the liquidation intensity of long-term holders might be peaking, with on-chain realized losses starting to decline. The market may be setting up for a "choppy bottom" if selling pressure continues to weaken and leverage remains uncrowded.