Key facts
- A proposed Bitcoin rule change, BIP-110, caused a chain split on Saturday.
- The forked chain has stalled, producing only two blocks.
- The breakaway chain is 326 blocks behind the main Bitcoin network.
- Miners have little incentive to support the forked chain due to its lack of market value and high mining difficulty.
- The forked chain's difficulty adjustment mechanism is estimated to be over six years away.
- Some experts believe it is too early to definitively call the effort a failure.
A proposed Bitcoin rule change, known as BIP-110, has resulted in a chain split, leaving the breakaway chain significantly behind the main network. The fork occurred at block 961,632 when computers running BIP-110 software began rejecting blocks that did not carry the proposal's mark, effectively creating a separate chain.
This new chain has produced only two blocks and has since stalled. The primary reason for the stall is the inherited high mining difficulty from the main Bitcoin network, coupled with the forked coin having no market value, thus offering miners no financial incentive to support it. Consequently, the forked chain is now 326 blocks behind the main Bitcoin network, which has advanced to block 961,959.
Bitcoin's network difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks to maintain an approximate ten-minute block production time. For the forked chain to adjust its difficulty downwards and become viable, it must first complete 2,016 blocks at its current pace. This process is now estimated to take over six years, a significant increase from previous estimates. Some observers, like Himanshu Sahay, co-founder of Arch, suggest it is premature to declare the effort a failure, emphasizing the need for coordination across miners, developers, and the wider ecosystem.