Key facts
- Bitcoin briefly exceeded $67,000 but retreated, reflecting trader caution regarding a tentative Iran peace deal.
- Ether, Solana, and XRP showed stronger gains compared to Bitcoin's subdued reaction to the geopolitical development.
- Other markets, including oil and major stock indices, experienced more significant rallies following the news of the Iran deal.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently concluded four consecutive weeks of substantial outflows.
- A positive on-chain signal is the ongoing transfer of coins from exchanges to cold storage, reducing available supply.
- Key upcoming events influencing crypto markets include the Iran deal signing on June 19 and the Federal Reserve's policy decision.
Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies experienced profit-taking and muted gains as traders adopted a cautious approach to a tentative peace deal between Iran and other nations. Despite a broader market rally in stocks and oil, driven by the potential for reduced geopolitical tensions, crypto assets have not fully participated.
Bitcoin briefly surpassed $67,000 late Monday but quickly retreated, trading around $65,845 on Tuesday. This hesitant price action is attributed to the market's wariness after previous cease-fire attempts failed to hold. Analysts suggest that investors are awaiting the official signing of the memorandum of understanding on June 19 in Switzerland, as well as the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision on Wednesday, before making significant commitments.
Ether showed more resilience, rising 2.8% to $1,764, while Solana gained 3.2% to $73, and XRP added 3.2% to $1.22. Hyperliquid's HYPE token led the gains among major cryptocurrencies, increasing by 6.3% to $69.
The macro environment turned more favorable on Monday, with President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signing an electronic copy of a memorandum of understanding with Iran. Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen on Friday. This news contributed to Brent crude oil prices falling over 4% and major stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting gains of 1.7% and 3.1% respectively.
Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis, noted that Bitcoin barely budged despite the significant drops in oil and jumps in Asian equities, characterizing it as a relief move the market has not fully embraced. He highlighted that this is the third truce attempt, and previous rallies have reversed, leading traders to wait for the June 19 signing.
The demand side also shows caution, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing four consecutive weeks of outflows totaling approximately $5.4 billion. However, a constructive signal is the steady movement of coins off exchanges into cold storage, which could tighten supply if demand returns. Chris Perkins, incoming head of Franklin Crypto at Franklin Templeton, expressed optimism, viewing the situation as a constructive setup for risk assets. He suggested that the recent SpaceX IPO may have drained some retail liquidity, and an improving macro environment could bring it back. Perkins also noted that the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, which would define digital assets as securities or commodities, could further accelerate institutional participation.
The immediate focus remains on the central bank calendar, with the Bank of Japan raising its benchmark rate to 1% and the Reserve Bank of Australia expected to hold rates. The Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday, alongside the Iran deal signing, are considered pivotal for the current crypto market bounce.