Key facts
- Russian seaborne crude exports fell to a four-month low.
- Exports averaged 3.71 million barrels per day in the four weeks through August 9.
- Increased domestic refinery runs contributed to the decline.
- Disruptions at key ports, including Novorossiysk, also played a role.
- The lowest export level was recorded since May.
Russian seaborne crude oil exports have reached their lowest point since May, with an average of 3.71 million barrels per day recorded in the four-week period concluding on August 9. This decrease is primarily driven by two key factors: the recovery of domestic refinery runs and disruptions experienced at major export terminals.
Specifically, Russian refineries have increased their processing of crude oil, diverting a larger portion of the output for domestic use rather than export. Concurrently, operational issues at vital ports, such as Novorossiysk, have hampered the ability to load and ship crude oil to international markets. These combined factors have led to a notable reduction in the volume of Russian crude oil available on the global seaborne market.
The decline in exports suggests a potential shift in Russia's energy export strategy, prioritizing domestic needs or facing logistical challenges that limit its capacity to supply international buyers. The impact on global oil markets will depend on the duration of these disruptions and the extent to which Russia can resume its previous export levels.