Key facts
- European crop output is forecast to fall by 8% in 2026/27.
- EU cereal production is forecast to contract by 5.6% in 2026/27.
- EU cereal production is forecast to fall to 273.7 million tonnes in 2026/27.
- Factors contributing to the decline include high yields in the previous season.
- Ongoing challenges from weather and rising input costs are also cited.
- Extreme heat, drought, and wildfires are causing significant crop losses.
- Olive oil prices are expected to rise further.
- Production is expected to remain close to the five-year average.
European crop output is forecast to contract by 8% in the 2026/27 season. Cereal production specifically is expected to fall by 5.6%, reaching 273.7 million tonnes. This projected decrease is influenced by the exceptionally high yields recorded in the previous season, coupled with ongoing difficulties stemming from adverse weather conditions and escalating input costs. Farmers across the continent are reporting significant crop losses due to extreme heat, drought, and wildfires. These conditions are impacting a wide range of agricultural products, including those used in salads and olive oil production. As a result, the price of olive oil, which is already at an elevated level, is anticipated to rise further. Despite the anticipated contraction, overall EU production is expected to remain close to the five-year average.