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Olive oil prices expected to rise again due to European crop damage

Created at 4 Aug · 4:11 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

European farmers are warning of significant crop losses due to extreme heat, drought, and wildfires, impacting everything from salads to olive oil. The cost of olive oil, already elevated, is expected to increase further as production is hit across the continent.

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Key Numbers

10%expected smaller grape yield in Champagne
2026-27cereal crop forecast period for Spain
18.5m tonnespredicted cereal crop for Spain
7%expected drop in sunflower harvest
6%expected drop in grain maize harvest
3%expected drop in potato and soya bean harvests
£7average price for a one-litre bottle of extra virgin olive oil in UK stores
10%forecasted increase in Italian wheat output
8.2m tonnespredicted maize harvest for this year

Who's Involved

Légumes de France
vegetable growers association warning of significant losses
Sarah Vachon
founder of Citizens of Soil olive oil group, expecting price rises
Walter Zanre
head of Filippo Berio UK, noting drought impact on Spanish olive trees
Jason Bull
managing director of UK food importer Eurostar Commodities, on heatwave impact
Cezar Gheorghe
of grain market consultancy Agricolumn, predicting maize harvest figures

↳ Why This Matters

The widespread crop damage across Europe due to extreme weather events directly impacts global food supply chains, leading to higher prices for essential commodities like olive oil and other produce. This situation highlights the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change and its potential to disrupt markets and affect consumer costs.

Key facts

  • Extreme heat, drought, and wildfires are causing widespread crop damage across Europe.
  • Olive oil prices are expected to rise again due to reduced production.
  • Vegetable growers report significant losses, with some crop yields potentially halved.
  • European Union harvest predictions have been lowered for various crops, including sunflowers and maize.
  • While some countries like Turkey and Italy have seen positive crop outcomes, many others are struggling.

European farmers are facing a severe slump in food production and anticipating price hikes as extreme heat, drought, and wildfires devastate crops across the continent. Olive groves have been particularly affected by record-high temperatures, leading to expectations of further price increases for olive oil, which is already at elevated levels.

Growers associations have warned of millions of euros in losses, with some crop yields, such as salad leaves, carrots, and onions, expected to be halved due to lack of rain. The scorching weather is also impacting grape growth in key wine regions like Champagne, Bordeaux, and Burgundy, threatening smaller yields and an earlier harvest. Spain's cereal crop is also predicted to fall significantly, despite farmers' adaptations to dry conditions.

The European Union has revised down harvest predictions for a range of crops, including sunflowers, grain maize, potatoes, and soya beans. While some countries like Romania and Italy have experienced more favorable conditions for certain crops, others have suffered direct damage from fires affecting orchards, vineyards, and agricultural land, as well as water stress and extreme temperatures impacting production.

Olive oil producers anticipate another surge in prices as groves in Greece, Italy, and Portugal have been impacted by fires, ash, and poor air quality. The extreme weather has also exacerbated pest and disease issues. While global olive oil prices had previously fallen from a spike, they have begun to rise again, with a one-litre bottle of extra virgin oil averaging over £7 in UK stores.

Producers are closely monitoring drought-induced fruit loss and earlier harvests, which could significantly influence production volumes and market prices for the upcoming year. The UK harvest has also been affected by drought, leading to reliance on imports for staples like lettuce and broccoli. Conversely, Turkey is noted as a positive exception with record crop yields, and Italy is expected to see an increase in wheat output.

Frequently asked questions

Crops affected include olive groves, salad leaves, carrots, leeks, garlic, onions, grapes, cereals, sunflowers, grain maize, potatoes, and soya beans.

Extreme heat, drought, and wildfires have damaged olive groves, reducing production. This, combined with existing elevated prices, is expected to lead to further price increases.

No, while many countries are severely affected, some like Turkey and Italy have seen positive outcomes for certain crops due to favorable weather conditions.

What Happens Next

01Olive oil producers will closely monitor drought-induced fruit loss and harvest timing.
02The impact of the current weather conditions on next year's olive oil production volumes and market prices will be assessed.

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How It Developed

Extreme heat, drought, and wildfires are affecting crops across Europe.
Olive groves have been impacted by record high temperatures.
Thousands of tonnes of produce, including salad leaves, carrots, leeks, garlic, and onions, have been lost.
Grape growth in French wine regions is threatened by the scorching weather.
Spain's cereal crop is predicted to fall significantly.
The European Union has lowered harvest predictions for sunflowers, grain maize, potatoes, and soya beans.
Direct damage from fires has affected orchards, vineyards, and agricultural land.
Water stress and extreme temperatures have impacted tomato and maize production.

Sources

T1
Price of olive oil expected to rise again as European crops feel the heatThe Guardian

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