Key facts
- Global grain prices have experienced their largest monthly increase since 2008.
- The Ogallala Aquifer, vital for U.S. farming, is diminishing.
- KC wheat prices have fallen 16% from their May high.
- Good/excellent crop ratings for KC wheat are at 26%.
- Western drought is shrinking crops and accelerating cattle liquidation.
- Tomato prices have hit a 45-year high due to supply chain issues.
- Corn farmers face potential losses of up to $100 per acre.
- New crop corn prices are lower than pre-war levels despite higher input costs.
- Managed funds sold approximately 90,000 corn contracts, the largest weekly sale since May 2025.
- Iowa reported corn at $4.10 and soybeans at $11.23 on May 29.
- Turkey set 2026 grain purchase prices for durum wheat at $359/MT and barley at $278/MT.
- Russian FOB wheat prices reached a seasonal high of $247/mt last week before declining.
Global grain prices are experiencing their most significant monthly increase since 2008, signaling potential widespread food inflation and impacting global food supplies. This surge affects staple grains such as wheat and corn. Concurrently, the Ogallala Aquifer, a vital water source for U.S. agriculture, is steadily depleting, raising concerns about future food production and price stability. In contrast to the general upward trend, KC wheat prices have fallen 16% from their May high, with an additional 2% drop following confirmation of the worst crop conditions in decades; good/excellent ratings for the crop stand at a low 26%.
An unprecedented drought in the Western United States is shrinking crops, drying up wells, tightening hay supplies, and accelerating cattle herd liquidation, according to Ben Rand of Blue Line Futures. This widespread impact affects agricultural resources and livestock operations. Separately, tomato prices have reached a 45-year high due to multiple supply chain disruptions, with no immediate improvement expected. Corn growers nationwide are facing significant financial strain, with potential losses reaching up to $100 per acre, creating a "squeezed" situation for producers. New crop corn prices are currently lower than pre-war levels, despite substantially higher fertilizer and diesel costs.
Concerns regarding the global wheat balance sheet are resurfacing, indicating ongoing market volatility. Managed funds have divested approximately 90,000 corn contracts in the latest week, the largest sale since May 2025, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the corn market. April's corn crush figures were lower than anticipated, possibly linked to weekly EIA ethanol production data, while soybean crush data showed mixed results. Demand for fiber-rich grains is boosting the premium craft flour industry, offering less processed alternatives. The monthly Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks report has been released, providing key data that influences supply and demand dynamics for oilseeds.
On May 29, Iowa reported an average corn price of $4.10 and soybeans at $11.23, while Illinois reported higher prices with corn at $4.26 and soybeans at $11.63. Turkey's TMO has announced 2026 grain purchase prices, setting durum and milling wheat at approximately $359/MT and barley at approximately $278/MT. Russian FOB wheat prices reached a seasonal high of $247/mt last week before beginning to decline, though the reasons for the decrease were not specified. Speculation that U.S. tariffs could prompt China to withdraw from a trade deal caused CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat futures to decline, although soybean exports increased week-over-week, with cumulative exports up 5.6% year-to-date.