Key facts
- Thermal coal prices are surging.
- Indonesia has implemented new export controls.
- A deadly mining accident occurred in China.
- Demand for coal is strong.
- LNG shortages are contributing to coal demand.
- The Iran war is linked to LNG shortages.
- AI infrastructure growth is increasing demand for electricity and coal.
Thermal coal prices are experiencing a significant surge, primarily attributed to two major supply disruptions: new export controls implemented by Indonesia and a deadly mining accident in China. Indonesia's decision to curb coal exports is directly impacting global supply, while the mining disaster in China has further constrained output from a key producing nation. These supply-side issues are compounded by strong and growing demand for coal. Demand is being bolstered by global LNG shortages, which are exacerbated by the ongoing Iran war, leading some regions to turn to coal as a more readily available alternative. Additionally, the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure is creating a substantial and increasing appetite for electricity, which in turn drives demand for thermal coal as a power generation fuel. The combination of reduced supply and heightened demand is creating a bullish market for thermal coal.