Key facts
- The USDA lowered its U.S. winter wheat production forecast for the 2026/27 season to 1.030 billion bushels.
- The outlook for hard red winter wheat, the largest variety, was reduced to 497 million bushels.
- This projection for hard red winter wheat is the lowest since 1957.
- The U.S. winter wheat crop condition rating is at its lowest point since 1986, with only 25% rated good-to-excellent.
- Drought conditions in the Plains are impacting key wheat-growing states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has lowered its forecast for the nation's winter wheat harvest, projecting 1.030 billion bushels for the 2026/27 season, a 2% decrease from the previous month. This reduction is primarily attributed to severe drought conditions across the Plains states, which have particularly impacted the production of hard red winter wheat. The outlook for this variety has fallen to 497 million bushels, the lowest since 1957, and significantly down from last year's 804 million bushels.
The USDA's latest weekly crop conditions report indicated that only 25% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is in good-to-excellent condition, the lowest rating for this period in records dating back to 1986. Farmers in key wheat-producing regions like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are experiencing minimal to no grain yields in some areas. These production challenges add to the financial strain on U.S. farmers already grappling with increased fuel and fertilizer costs, exacerbated by disruptions such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and trade tensions stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies.