Key facts
- Pakistan's wheat production for MY 2026-27 is estimated at 29 million tonnes, revised down from previous projections.
- Adverse weather, including heat stress and storms, has negatively impacted crop yields.
- Domestic wheat flour prices have risen significantly, by around 38% from July 2025 to January 2026.
- Pakistan continues to ban wheat imports and exports.
- A shortfall of approximately 1.2 million tonnes is anticipated, potentially necessitating imports.
- The implementation of a new market-based procurement policy has been slower than expected.
Pakistan's wheat production outlook for the 2025-26 Rabi season has been significantly lowered due to adverse weather conditions, including late-season heat stress and storms, which have damaged crop yields. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) now estimates production at 29 million tonnes, below the official figure. This reduction, coupled with flood-related supply disruptions and policy uncertainty, has led to elevated domestic wheat flour prices, with an approximate 38% increase observed between July 2025 and January 2026.
Despite tighter domestic supplies and higher prices, Pakistan continues to maintain a ban on wheat imports. Wheat exports are also prohibited, and cross-border trade with Afghanistan has been halted. The implementation of a new market-based procurement policy, intended to increase private sector participation, has been slower than anticipated due to financing disagreements, resulting in missed procurement targets and increased price volatility.
The revised estimate suggests that total wheat output may fall to 28.1 million tonnes, potentially creating a shortfall of about 1.2 million tonnes. With existing carryover stocks, total availability for the marketing year 2026-27 is estimated at 30 million tonnes, making imports increasingly likely. The primary causes of physical damage to the crop were grain shriveling and lodging of mature plants due to extreme temperatures and unseasonal rainfall.