Key facts
- US winter wheat production is forecast to be 1.030 billion bushels in 2026, a 27% decrease from 2025.
- Hard red winter wheat output is projected at 496.886 million bushels, a 38% year-over-year decline.
- This hard red winter wheat output would be the lowest since the late 1950s if realized.
- Soft red winter wheat production is forecast at 300.252 million bushels, down 15% from 2025.
- Drought and a spring freeze event have severely impacted crop conditions in key growing states.
- The winter wheat harvest is ahead of schedule due to accelerated crop maturity.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast a significant decline in the 2026 winter wheat crop, with hard red winter wheat production potentially reaching its lowest point since the late 1950s. The June 11 Crop Production report projects total winter wheat output at 1.030 billion bushels, a 27% decrease from 1.402 billion bushels in 2025.
Hard red winter wheat production is specifically forecast at 496.886 million bushels, down 38% from the previous year and a 2% decrease from the May outlook. This figure, if realized, would mark the lowest output since the late 1950s. Soft red winter wheat production is estimated at 300.252 million bushels, down 15% from 2025 and the lowest since 2020.
Despite favorable soil moisture conditions during the fall planting season, the crop's outlook deteriorated by spring. Forecast precipitation failed to materialize in key growing areas like Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. A spring freeze event in Kansas further exacerbated the situation. Good-to-excellent crop conditions in Kansas, which stood at 62% in late November, plummeted to 38% by early April.
Participants on the Hard Winter Wheat Evaluation Tour noted that drought, freeze injury, and disease had significantly eroded yield potential. Some fields are not expected to yield enough to cover harvesting costs, with crops rapidly maturing due to recent adverse conditions. The harvest pace is currently ahead of the previous year and the five-year average, raising concerns about yield losses and grain quality.