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US cooking oil market shrinking due to economic and ICE pressures on Latino households

Created at 1 Jul · 1:05 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

The US cooking oil market is contracting due to financial and immigration enforcement pressures on Latino households, according to George Weston, CEO of Associated British Foods. He noted that these pressures are leading consumers to reuse oil more frequently and impacting demand for fried foods.

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Key Numbers

3%Total sales growth for Associated British Foods
£5.3bnTotal sales in the quarter
1%Grocery sales growth for Associated British Foods
3%Primark sales growth
4%Slump in sugar sales
14%Slump in agricultural supplies sales

Who's Involved

George Weston
CEO of Associated British Foods (ABF), owner of Mazola brand
Associated British Foods (ABF)
Owner of Mazola, Twinings, Kingsmill, and Primark
Stratas Foods
ABF's US joint venture supplying oils to the food service sector
Donald Trump
Championed anti-immigration raids

↳ Why This Matters

The shrinking US cooking oil market, driven by economic and immigration pressures on a key consumer demographic, signals a significant shift in consumer behavior and spending habits that could impact commodity demand and related industries. The influence of appetite-suppressing drugs on food service demand also highlights emerging trends affecting the broader food industry.

Key facts

  • The US cooking oil market is shrinking due to economic and immigration enforcement pressures on Latino households.
  • Hispanic consumers are reusing cooking oil more frequently, impacting sales.
  • The rise of appetite-suppressing drugs like GLP-1s is affecting demand for fried foods in the foodservice sector.
  • Associated British Foods reported a 1% increase in grocery sales, with lower US oil sales offset by other brands.
  • The company's overall sales increased by 3% to £5.3 billion in the quarter.

The US cooking oil market is experiencing a contraction, with Associated British Foods (ABF) CEO George Weston attributing the decline to financial and immigration enforcement pressures on Latino households. Weston stated that these pressures are leading consumers, particularly within the Hispanic population, to reuse cooking oil more frequently, impacting sales of brands like Mazola. He also noted that the increasing use of appetite-suppressing drugs, such as GLP-1s, is contributing to reduced demand for fried foods in the foodservice sector.

Despite the challenges in the cooking oil segment, ABF reported a 1% rise in overall grocery sales for the three months to June 20, with growth in brands like Twinings offsetting the lower US oil sales. The company's total sales increased by 3% to £5.3 billion during the quarter. Sales at Primark, which ABF is considering spinning off into a separate listed company, were up 3% after adjusting for exchange rate changes. However, the group experienced a 4% slump in sugar sales and a 14% slump in agricultural supplies, largely due to animal feed.

Weston described the consumer environment across most of ABF's markets as challenging. The report also touched upon job cuts at Asda, the UK's third-largest supermarket, which reduced its workforce by nearly 6,000 last year. These cuts were attributed to various factors, including the sale of the Leon food business, a reduction in the technology team following IT system revamps, and a general non-replacement of staff who had left. Asda has been working to turn its business around since its acquisition in 2020, though it reported a near £1 billion loss last year amid a supermarket price war and significant investment in IT system changes.

Frequently asked questions

Associated British Foods owns brands including Mazola, Twinings, Kingsmill, and the fashion retailer Primark.

The market is shrinking due to financial pressures and immigration enforcement actions affecting Latino households, leading to reduced consumption and increased oil reuse.

Drugs like GLP-1s are reducing demand for fried foods in the foodservice sector, according to ABF's CEO.

Associated British Foods reported a 3% increase in total sales to £5.3 billion, with grocery sales up 1%, though sugar and agricultural supplies saw significant declines.

What Happens Next

01Associated British Foods expects the current consumer pressures to continue impacting the cooking oil market into 2027.

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How It Developed

George Weston, CEO of Associated British Foods, stated the US cooking oil market is shrinking.
Weston cited financial and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) pressures on Latino households as reasons for the decline.
He noted that Hispanic consumers are reusing cooking oil more frequently.
Weston also indicated that GLP-1 drugs are impacting foodservice demand, particularly for fried foods.
Associated British Foods reported a 1% rise in overall grocery sales, with lower US oil sales offset by growth in other brands.
The company's total sales rose 3% to £5.3bn in the quarter.
Primark sales were up 3%, while sugar sales fell 4% and agricultural supplies dropped 14%.

Sources

T1
US cooking oil market shrinking due to Ice pressures on Latino households, Mazola owner saysThe Guardian

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