Key facts
- Farmers face significant challenges with abundant grain crops and limited storage capacity.
- USDA projects record corn production for 2025/26 at 16.8 billion bushels.
- Soybean production is also projected higher, though export demand has been lowered.
- Wheat stocks have increased by 6% compared to the previous year.
- Global coarse grains production is expected to rise, primarily due to increased corn output in several South American countries and India.
Farmers are confronting a challenging harvest season with abundant grain crops and insufficient storage capacity, a situation exacerbated by slowing export demand and high logistical costs. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects record corn production for the 2025/26 marketing year, estimated at 16.8 billion bushels, significantly exceeding last year's output. Soybean production is also anticipated to be higher, although export demand projections have been revised downward.
Wheat inventories have moved counter to corn and soybeans, with total stocks estimated at 2.12 billion bushels, a 6% increase from the previous year. On-farm storage for wheat increased by 4%, while off-farm stocks rose by 7%. Despite a slight decrease in overall corn and soybean inventories compared to last year, they remain historically large. Corn stocks were reported at 1.52 billion bushels, with on-farm storage down 18% and off-farm down 10%. Soybean stocks stood at 315 million bushels, down 8% year-over-year.
The logistical strain is significant, as total U.S. grain storage capacity has seen minimal growth. Some elevators are already operating near capacity before the harvest fully commences, particularly in regions affected by low river levels restricting barge traffic. Globally, coarse grains production is expected to increase for both 2025/26 and 2026/27, primarily driven by corn output gains in India, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. These increases are partially offset by reduced corn production in Mexico.