Key facts
- Ukrainian grain and oilseed production for 2024-25 is estimated at 74.6 million tonnes, a 9.7% decrease from the 2023-24 season.
- Exports of grains and oilseeds are projected to fall by 18.2% in the 2024-25 season.
- Reduced planting area due to high logistics costs and low production costs is a key factor.
- Corn production is expected to be 25.5 million tonnes, down from 29.6 million tonnes in 2023-24.
- Wheat production is forecast at 19.1 million tonnes, with exports down 13% to 13 million tonnes.
- Sunflower seed exports are forecast at 250,000 tonnes, nearly half of the previous season.
Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports are expected to fall by 18.2% in the 2024-25 season, with overall production projected to decrease by 9.7% compared to the previous year. The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) estimates this year's crop at 74.6 million tonnes, down from 82.6 million tonnes harvested in 2023-24.
The decline in production is attributed primarily to farmers reducing the acreage dedicated to grain crops. This shift is driven by low production costs and expensive logistics, prompting a redistribution of sown areas. Forecasts are based on average weather conditions, but variations could impact outcomes.
Corn production is anticipated to be 25.5 million tonnes, an decrease of 4.1 million tonnes from the 2023-24 season. Wheat production is forecast at 19.1 million tonnes, with exports projected to fall by 13% to 13 million tonnes. Barley production is expected to drop 20% year-on-year to 4.6 million tonnes.
Sunflower seed production is forecast at 13.7 million tonnes, a 3.5% decrease from the previous season, and exports are expected to be halved to 250,000 tonnes. Rapeseed production is projected to decline by 4.4% to 4.3 million tonnes, with exports down by 300,000 tonnes. Soybean production, however, is expected to increase by 12.2% to 5.5 million tonnes, with exports rising to 4 million tonnes.
Russian attacks are also cited as a factor hindering Ukraine's ability to ship grain.