Key facts
- President Trump has implemented a blockade on Iran's oil exports.
- Global oil reserves are lower, increasing the potential impact on prices.
- The blockade is expected to worsen existing helium shortages.
- Helium is essential for cooling semiconductors and MRI machines.
- Spot prices for helium have already doubled due to the conflict.
President Trump's decision to blockade Iran's oil exports carries potential implications for both crude oil and helium prices. While a similar blockade in April did not lead to sustained price increases, the current global oil reserve levels are lower, and shipping routes face increased risks. The blockade is also anticipated to exacerbate existing helium shortages, affecting critical sectors such as semiconductor manufacturing and medical imaging. Helium, derived from natural gas, is vital for cooling superheated components like electronic chips and the superconducting magnets in MRI machines. Spot prices for helium have already more than doubled since the conflict began, and the blockade is expected to prolong these shortages, making them harder to manage. Aleksandr Romanenko, founder and CEO of market research firm IndexBox, stated that the blockade will ensure the global helium shortage lasts longer and becomes more difficult to manage. He described the situation as one where allocation tightens, spot volumes become harder to find, lead times stretch, and refill economics worsen, characterizing it as a "real shortage." Although the U.S. produces the majority of the world's helium (44 percent), Qatar is the second-largest producer (35 percent). Some helium-producing facilities in Qatar have reportedly been damaged in the conflict and could take years to resume operations. Similar to crude oil, the world has been relying on existing volumes of helium in transit or storage since the conflict started. Anish Kapadia, CEO of AKAP Energy, noted that the real price increases and potential shortages have not yet fully materialized but are imminent. He cautioned that even if the shipping straits were to reopen immediately, it would take months for markets to return to normal, and the impact would gradually become more apparent.