Key facts
- Tankers are broadcasting their positions in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a tentative reopening.
- At least 172 vessels have transited the strait since a US-Iran deal was signed.
- Brent crude prices have fallen to their lowest point since the conflict began.
- The US Treasury has eased sanctions, allowing Iranian oil sales until August 21.
- Iran's Strait Authority requires passage permits, and concerns about sea mines persist.
Tankers have resumed broadcasting their positions in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a tentative reopening after a period of operating in "dark mode" with transponders switched off. This shift follows a deal between the U.S. and Iran aimed at ending conflict, though caution persists among shipowners due to conflicting messages and potential hazards like sea mines.
According to data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler, at least 172 vessels have crossed the Strait since the deal was signed on June 18, including 42 on Saturday. However, this number remains below the pre-conflict average of approximately 138 daily crossings. On Tuesday, over 200 tankers were observed waiting within the strait, with at least 10 moving west into the Gulf. The price of Brent crude has fallen to its lowest level since the war began.
Many tankers transiting the strait in recent days have been linked to Iran, following the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade as part of the deal. Jemima Shelley, a senior research analyst at United Against Nuclear Iran, noted that at least 30 tankers have departed the Gulf laden with Iranian oil and petrochemicals. The U.S. Treasury has also eased sanctions, issuing a license for Iranian oil sales until August 21. On Monday, five previously sanctioned tankers moved through the strait, carrying up to four million barrels of oil.
Despite these developments, Martin Kelly of EOS Risk Group noted an increase in "normal" trade, with four liquefied natural gas tankers heading to Qatar and several other vessels sailing out of the Gulf. These transits occurred along the Iranian-approved northern route. However, over 250 tankers and 440 cargo ships remain inside the Gulf, with many stationary.
Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) now requires passage permits for all vessels transiting the strait, a move that may deter some ship owners due to the PGSA's sanctioned status. Conflicting messages from Iranian officials regarding the strait's status have added to the uncertainty. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) has warned ships about sea mines in the central part of the strait and recommended a narrower southern route, which has been confirmed clear of mines. Shelley observed that tanker transits stalled when Iran declared the strait closed on June 20, with only a trickle resuming subsequently.