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Tropical storm risk in Caribbean/Gulf rises to 20% in 15 days

Created at 1 Jun · 4:49 PM4 sources↑ Market-relevant4 events
IN SHORT

The ECMWF EPS forecast indicates a 20% chance of tropical storm or hurricane activity in the Caribbean/Gulf between days 12-15. This elevated risk, higher than climatology, is influenced by an approaching favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation period. Tropical forcing analogs also suggest a pattern favoring the W. Grain Belt and drier conditions further east, making verification critical.

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Key Numbers

15 daysforecast period
10ensemble members indicating tropical storm/hurricane
50total ensemble members
12-15days for tropical storm/hurricane risk
20%chance of tropical storm/hurricane

Who's Involved

ECMWF EPS
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
atmospheric phenomenon influencing tropical weather patterns
Tropical storm risk in Caribbean/Gulf rises to 20% in 15 days

↳ Why This Matters

Increased storm activity in the Caribbean/Gulf can disrupt energy production, refining, and shipping, leading to crude oil and natural gas price volatility. The forecast also suggests potential impacts on grain belt conditions, affecting agricultural commodity markets.

Key facts

  • ECMWF EPS forecast shows a 20% chance of tropical storm/hurricane in Caribbean/Gulf in 15 days.
  • Risk is concentrated between days 12-15 of the forecast period.
  • A favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) period is approaching.
  • Tropical forcing analogs favor the Hudson Bay Ridge signal.
  • This pattern supports a favorable setup for the W. Grain Belt and drier conditions further east.

The ECMWF EPS forecast indicates a 20% chance of tropical storm or hurricane activity in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico within the next 15 days, with the risk concentrated between days 12-15. This probability is higher than climatology and is supported by an approaching favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) period. Additionally, tropical forcing analogs suggest a pattern that favors the Western Grain Belt and drier conditions further east. The verification of this developing pattern is considered critical.

Frequently asked questions

It is a 15-day forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' Ensemble Prediction System, detailing potential storm tracks.

A 20% chance is considered higher than typical for this period, suggesting an increased likelihood of tropical cyclone activity in the Caribbean/Gulf.

The MJO is a recurring pattern of atmospheric circulation that influences weather, particularly tropical storm formation, and is currently entering a favorable phase.

The signal favors a more favorable setup for the Western Grain Belt and drier conditions further east, which will be critical to monitor.

What Happens Next

01Monitor subsequent ECMWF EPS forecasts for changes in tropical storm probability.
02Observe MJO progression and its impact on tropical weather patterns.
03Track any official advisories from meteorological agencies regarding tropical cyclone development.
04Monitor verification of the Hudson Bay Ridge signal and its impact on the W. Grain Belt.

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Cadence
CME Headlines
  • Live Cattle futures fell as liquidation trend extended.
    8 Jul · 8:17 PM
  • Live Cattle futures fell as liquidation trend extended.
    8 Jul · 8:17 PM
  • Grain futures turned lower as wheat snapped six-day rally.
    8 Jul · 8:06 PM

How It Developed

2 Jun · 11:43 AM
New analysis suggests tropical forcing analogs favor a Hudson Bay Ridge, potentially leading to drier conditions in the eastern grain belt.
@bam_weather via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 9:48 PM
The ECMWF EPS forecast suggests a 20% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane in the Caribbean/Gulf in 12-15 days.
@RyanWeather via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 6:25 PM
NOAA forecasts over 2 inches of rain for Central US and Gulf states, with dry conditions in the Southwest.
@NOAADrought via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 4:44 PM
The Southern to Central moisture connection is expected to continue, supported by historical positive global wind anomalies with a negative tendency.
@commoditywx via PiQSuite

Sources

T1
Southern to Central moisture connection continues with historical support from positive global wind anomalies with negative tendency. https://t.co/n9QChQc1FR@commoditywx via PiQSuite
T1
This week's precip forecast by @NOAA's @NWSWPC A wet week across the Central US and Gulf, with up 2+ inches expected across parts of the Central and Southern Plains and Gulf states. Mostly dry for the Southwest and Great Basin. https://t.co/s8Wz6Q9cl6 @NWS https://t.co/kD2MiuxaXf@NOAADrought via PiQSuite
T1
Next 15-days of ECMWF EPS 12z storm tracks -- tropical and non-tropical 50-ensemble members ... and there are ~10 that have a TS/hurricane in Caribbean/Gulf in Days 12-15. 20% chance is higher than expected from climatology but favorable period (MJO) coming up! https://t.co/ZMAKl389qH@RyanWeather via PiQSuite
T1
Looking at tropical forcing analogs, we can see they heavily favor the Hudson Bay Ridge signal. These generally support a more favorable set up for the W. Grain Belt and lean drier further east. Again, going to be absolutely critical to watch how this pattern verifies ahead. https://t.co/0xV1ARBf78@bam_weather via PiQSuite

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