Key facts
- Southern Europe faces intensified wildfire risk due to hotter, drier, and windier conditions.
- Research shows a 50% increase in fire-promoting weather intensity in parts of France and Spain between 2016-2025 compared to 1981-2010.
- The number of days with highly fire-promoting conditions has increased from under 10 to around 25 per summer in affected regions.
- Human-caused climate change is a significant factor, with Europe warming twice as fast as the global average.
- Despite increased risk, fire management efforts have led to a 40% decrease in annual wildfires over the past decade.
- Proposed solutions include prescribed burns, sustainable land use, and wetland restoration.
Southern Europe is grappling with an escalating wildfire risk, characterized by an intensification of fire-promoting weather conditions, according to new scientific research. While the total number of wildfires has decreased over the past decade due to improved management, the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events are on the rise, posing a significant challenge to firefighting capabilities.
Analysis of national wildfire records and climate data from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece between 1981 and 2025 reveals that fire-promoting weather—hot, dry, and windy conditions—has increased by up to 50% in parts of France and Spain from 2016-2025 compared to the 1981-2010 period. The number of days exhibiting these conditions has also risen significantly, from fewer than 10 per summer to around 25 in some regions.
Researchers link these trends to large-scale climate patterns, including El Niño, and more significantly, to human-induced climate change. Europe is warming at more than twice the global average, making it the fastest-warming continent. A recent June heatwave, for instance, was deemed virtually impossible in 1976.
Despite the heightened risk, fire management efforts, including improved training and public awareness campaigns, have contributed to a roughly 40% reduction in the annual number of wildfires over the last decade. However, as Europe braces for further heatwaves, fears of flare-ups remain high.
To mitigate future risks, experts advocate for tackling climate change by transitioning away from fossil fuels. In the interim, strategies such as prescribed burns, sustainable land use management, and the restoration of landscapes and water systems like wetlands are recommended. Beavers are also highlighted for their natural fire-mitigating dam-building activities.