Key facts
- El Niño has officially begun, with a high probability of becoming a "super" event.
- A "super" El Niño is defined as one of the largest on record since 1950.
- The United Nations has warned of an impending extra-hot summer due to El Niño.
- Winter weather is expected to be warmer and drier in the northern U.S. and wetter in the southern U.S.
- Increased high-tide flooding is anticipated, especially on the West Coast.
El Niño has officially begun, and forecasters predict it is likely to become one of the strongest on record. The Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday that there is a 63% chance of experiencing a "very strong" or "super" El Niño, which would place it among the most significant events recorded since 1950. The most recent "super" El Niño occurred in 2015-2016.
The United Nations has issued a warning, anticipating that El Niño will exacerbate existing heat waves and lead to an extra-hot summer. While El Niño typically suppresses storms in the Atlantic during the summer and fall, it tends to fuel tropical storms in the Pacific. The most pronounced impacts are usually observed during the winter months.
In the United States, El Niño typically brings warmer and drier weather to northern regions and the Ohio Valley. Conversely, the southern half of the country can expect a wetter winter, with increased rainfall and snowfall. The precise boundary of these weather patterns shifts annually, influenced by the jet stream's position. The National Weather Service also indicated that high-tide flooding could become a more significant issue, particularly along the West Coast, where harmful algae blooms have historically thrived during El Niño years.
However, experts caution that each El Niño event is unique, and its specific impacts can vary. Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, emphasized that stronger El Niños do not automatically guarantee stronger weather effects but rather increase the likelihood of observing typical El Niño patterns.