Key facts
- OPEC+ is expected to approve a final production increase for September.
- Monthly quota targets are anticipated to remain unchanged from October through December 2026.
- New quotas are set to take effect in January 2027.
- The group is reassessing members' sustainable production capacities for future baseline setting.
- Several factors, including geopolitical events and infrastructure issues, have constrained actual output.
OPEC+ is reportedly preparing to approve one final production increase for September, after which it intends to pause adjustments to its monthly output targets through the end of 2026. Sources indicate that current production levels will be maintained until new quotas are established in January 2027.
The group is currently reviewing the sustainable production capacities of its member nations, a process that will inform the baselines for 2027. This reassessment is complicated by factors such as the Iran war, export bottlenecks in Iraq, and disruptions affecting Russian production, which have reduced the group's effective spare capacity despite recent target increases.
While OPEC+ has been granting permission for supply restoration, actual group output has fallen short due to various operational and logistical constraints. The upcoming decisions will determine how much capacity is officially recognized, who receives higher quotas, and whether the market will require the additional supply in 2027, especially if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover.