Key facts
- OPEC reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day.
- This is the second consecutive downward revision for the 2026 forecast.
- OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 1.73 million bpd in 2027, an increase from the previous forecast.
- OPEC+ crude output decreased by 190,000 bpd in May compared to April.
- Iran's oil exports saw a sharp decline in May due to U.S. blockades.
OPEC on Thursday lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day, marking the second straight downward revision. The producer group's monthly report indicated that it continues to see a smaller impact on consumption from the ongoing conflict than other forecasters such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency.
Despite the reduced 2026 forecast, OPEC raised its demand growth forecast for 2027 to 1.73 million barrels per day, an increase of 190,000 bpd from the previous outlook. The report noted that global economic performance in the first half of 2026 has remained resilient, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, and OPEC left its economic growth forecasts unchanged.
The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, impacting millions of barrels of Middle East output and leading to a surge in fuel prices. The EIA and IEA both anticipate a decline in oil demand this year as a consequence of the war.
OPEC+ crude output averaged 33.13 million bpd in May, a decrease of 190,000 bpd from April, according to secondary sources cited in the report. Iran experienced the largest drop in output, with its exports falling sharply in May due to a U.S. blockade. The May figures also account for the United Arab Emirates, which departed from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1.