Key facts
- Opec has downgraded its 2026 global oil demand forecast for the third consecutive month.
- The organization revised down its 2026 oil demand projection by 190,000 b/d to 105.94 million b/d.
- Opec upgraded its oil demand growth forecast for 2027 by 210,000 b/d to 1.73 million b/d.
- Demand downgrades were primarily driven by China and India.
- The US-Iran war is cited as a factor contributing to global economic instability.
Opec has downgraded its global oil demand forecast for 2026 for the third consecutive month, while simultaneously raising its projection for the following year. The organization's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) indicates a downward revision of 190,000 barrels per day (b/d) for 2026, setting total consumption at 105.94 million b/d.
While Opec did not explicitly state a reason for the downgrade, the report follows a period of global economic instability, exacerbated by the US-Iran war. The reductions in demand forecasts were largely attributed to China and India, whose oil consumption projections were cut by 110,000 b/d and 60,000 b/d, respectively.
Conversely, Opec has upgraded its oil demand growth forecast for 2027 by 210,000 b/d, projecting total consumption to reach 107.86 million b/d. These forecasts from Opec are considerably higher than those from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which anticipates a decline in oil demand by 1 million b/d to 103.5 million b/d in 2026, largely due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
Opec maintained its forecast for non-Opec+ supply growth, keeping it broadly unchanged between 640,000 b/d and 620,000 b/d. The organization does not provide its own forecast for Opec+ production but relies on estimates from secondary sources. These estimates indicate that Opec+ crude output, including Mexico, increased by 2.999 million b/d to 36.278 million b/d in June. This level remains approximately 6.5 million b/d below pre-war figures. The report suggests that if Middle East Gulf oil production continues to be constrained at current levels, Opec's demand figures would imply a significant supply deficit for the year.