Key facts
- Oil prices surged due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
- Barclays sees upside risks to its 2026 Brent price forecast, potentially adding $10/bbl if the Hormuz impasse lasts three months.
- Barclays suggested spot prices could test $150/bbl in a three-month scenario.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit route for approximately one-fifth of global energy supplies.
- Oil prices reached $100 a barrel this week for the first time since May.
Global oil prices have surged, with Brent crude gaining $10 per barrel due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Barclays noted that risks to its oil price forecasts are skewed higher, stating that a three-month impasse in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a $10 per barrel upside risk to its $96/bbl 2026 Brent forecast, with spot prices potentially testing $150/bbl. Oil prices reached $100 a barrel this week for the first time since May amid renewed hostilities and worries over global supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit route for approximately one-fifth of global energy supplies. Despite these threats, OPEC+ plans to increase its September output by 188,000 b/d. Houthi attacks have also impacted Saudi crude exports, forcing rerouting, while QatarEnergy extended force majeure declarations on LNG deliveries. Separately, low water levels on the Rhine River threaten barge navigation and fuel deliveries in Europe, and the Trump administration is set to impose new tariffs on imports.