Key facts
- Mexico's refineries operated at 58% capacity in Q2 2026, processing around 1 million b/d.
- Fuel imports rose significantly in Q2 2026, reaching 700,000 b/d in June.
- Despite substantial investment, Pemex's refineries struggle with consistent high utilization rates.
- High crack spreads for gasoline and diesel exacerbate the financial strain of fuel imports.
- The Dos Bocas refinery, despite its newness, has faced repeated operational disruptions.
Mexico's ambition to achieve fuel self-sufficiency is being undermined by its state oil company, Pemex, which is struggling to operate its expanded and upgraded refining capacity reliably. Despite significant investments in new units and rehabilitation, refinery utilization rates have fallen in the second quarter of 2026, leading to a sharp increase in fuel imports.
Until early 2026, Mexico's strategy appeared to be yielding results, with clean product imports decreasing as refinery throughput recovered. However, crude processing began to decline in April, and product imports subsequently rose. This reversal highlights the core challenge: while Mexico can reduce its reliance on foreign fuels when its refineries operate at higher capacities, it has not yet demonstrated the ability to sustain these high run rates consistently.
Even at its recent peak, the Mexican refining system operated at only about two-thirds of its roughly 1.75 million b/d installed capacity. The low utilization rates represent a poor return on billions of dollars invested. Furthermore, Pemex's renewed dependence on fuel imports comes at a particularly costly time, with gasoline and diesel crack spreads near record highs, adding financial pressure to the company.
Improvements have been noted in specific areas, such as the Tula refinery, which has seen increased utilization partly due to its new delayed coker. Pemex is also extracting a better product slate from the crude it processes, with higher yields of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel and lower output of fuel oil. However, these gains in product quality do not address the fundamental issue of keeping enough crude moving through the refineries.
Technical failures remain a frequent problem across the system. The Dos Bocas refinery, the newest, has experienced numerous disruptions since early 2025. Similarly, Salina Cruz has faced repeated issues, while other refineries have encountered isolated problems. The Dos Bocas refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 340,000 b/d, averaged only 144,000 b/d in Q2 2026, indicating significant underutilization.
This inconsistency makes Mexico's refining strategy economically unattractive. While strong crack spreads incentivize keeping crude domestic, Pemex sacrifices potential export revenue without fully capturing downstream margins if plants cannot sustain high utilization. Crude exports have decreased, yet fuel imports have increased as refinery runs weakened.
Pemex faces significant financial challenges, carrying $77.5 billion in financial debt and $14.6 billion in restructured supplier debt. Substantial government capital contributions have supported the company, raising concerns about its potential impact on Mexico's sovereign credit profile.
Ultimately, refinery reliability is more than a technical issue; it is central to Mexico's self-sufficiency strategy. While Pemex has shown it can improve yields and temporarily boost throughput, sustained high utilization rates remain elusive. The country risks paying twice for its strategy: once for the capacity built and again for imported fuels when that capacity fails to deliver.