Key facts
- Recoverable shale oil and condensate reserves in Argentina's Vaca Muerta formation are now estimated at 30.1 billion barrels.
- This figure nearly doubles the previous estimate of 16 billion barrels from 2013.
- The updated assessment is based on increased productive areas, net pay thickness, and recovery factors.
- Argentina's oil output rose 17% year-on-year to 914,900 b/d in July.
- New export infrastructure, including pipelines and terminals, is being developed by YPF and Oldelval.
Recoverable shale oil and condensate reserves in Argentina's Vaca Muerta formation have nearly doubled to 30.1 billion barrels, according to an announcement by the country's energy secretary's office. This updated estimate significantly surpasses the previous figure of 16 billion barrels recorded in 2013 by the US Energy Information Administration.
The revised reserve numbers are attributed to a comprehensive study that evaluated three key technical factors: a 22% increase in productive areas, a 39% rise in net pay thickness (the rock layer capable of producing oil), and a 54% improvement in the recovery factor. These findings underscore Argentina's rapid ascent as a major oil producer in South America, with July output reaching 914,900 barrels per day, a 17% increase compared to the same month last year.
Significant infrastructure development is underway to capitalize on these reserves. The state-run energy company YPF is leading the Vmos consortium, which is finalizing a crude export complex. This complex includes a 437km pipeline from Vaca Muerta to a dedicated export terminal in Punta Colorada, Rio Negro province. The terminal will feature six storage tanks, each with a capacity of 750,000 barrels. Pumping operations are set to commence at 190,000 b/d in the final quarter of this year, with plans to increase capacity to 390,000 b/d by mid-2027 and eventually reach 550,000 b/d.
In parallel, the privately led Oldelval consortium is completing a new 207km pipeline that will add 220,000 b/d of capacity, bringing its total to over 700,000 b/d. The combined capacity of the Vmos and Oldelval pipelines is expected to enable exports exceeding 1 million b/d by 2027.
Further upstream development includes YPF's LLL Oil project, which aims to produce 240,000 b/d by 2032. Additionally, private companies operating in Vaca Muerta have submitted plans for new wells projected to add another 310,000 b/d over the next decade. The reserve calculation involved a collaborative effort by representatives from the energy secretary's office, major production companies including Chevron, Pampa Energia, Pan American Energy, Pluspetrol, Tecpetrol, Vista, and YPF, along with universities and the private oil and gas institute, IAPG.