Key facts
- Lake Powell, the US's second-largest reservoir, is at 23% capacity, nearing historic lows not seen since 1965.
- A lack of spring runoff recovery means water levels are projected to fall further for the next eight months.
- The dwindling water supply threatens hydroelectric power generation for nearly 6 million households and businesses.
- Water from the Colorado River system serves 40 million people across seven US states, tribal nations, and two countries.
- Negotiations for water conservation among the affected states have failed to reach an agreement.
- Experts cite a warming climate and declining runoff as the primary causes of the water crisis.
Lake Powell, the second-largest reservoir in the United States, is facing an unprecedented water crisis, with levels plunging to historic lows. Scientists and water experts warn that the reservoir, a critical component of the Colorado River system, may reach unprecedentedly low levels this year due to a historically bleak snowpack that failed to adequately replenish its water.
The reservoir currently holds about 5.6 million acre-feet of water, representing approximately 23% of its total capacity. While the water level dipped below this mark for a few months in 2023, those levels were recorded during the winter low. This year, however, a combination of historically low mountain snowpack and a record-breaking March heatwave meant that spring runoff provided minimal recovery. Even with supplemental releases from the upstream Flaming Gorge Reservoir, Lake Powell ended June below its previous monthly low and is projected to continue declining for the next eight months.
This situation has not been seen since June 1965, two years after the reservoir began filling. Jack Schmidt, director of Utah State University’s Center for Colorado River Studies, highlighted that the lack of recovery this year is unique. He anticipates that Lake Powell will reach unprecedented low conditions sometime this fall, complicating water management in the Colorado River system.
The consequences of these falling levels are far-reaching. They threaten the generation of hydroelectric power from the Glen Canyon Dam, which supplies electricity to nearly 6 million households and businesses. Furthermore, the dwindling supply intensifies uncertainty in ongoing, contentious negotiations over how to allocate the increasingly unreliable water source used by 40 million people across seven US states, numerous tribal nations, and two countries.
For over two decades, both Lake Powell and its downriver counterpart, Lake Mead, have seen significant capacity reductions, despite efforts by millions of users to cut back their water consumption. Negotiators from California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming have yet to agree on a conservation plan for the river's surface water. The US Bureau of Reclamation may step in next month to impose its own plan for water cuts.
Experts believe the system is approaching a critical breaking point, driven by the warming and drying climate of the US West. Brad Udall, a water and climate research scientist at Colorado State University, stated that declining runoff, caused by a warming climate, is the ultimate driver of the problem. Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, noted that cities are deploying a range of tools to secure alternative water supplies, with some being differentially impacted by the shortage.
Cities like Phoenix are investing in advanced water recycling technologies, turning treated sewage effluent into drinking water. San Diego is considering a plan to share surplus water from its desalination plant with Arizona and Nevada, allowing those states to acquire some of San Diego's Colorado River water rights. Udall suggested that paying users to reduce their draw from the system is essential, likening the situation to having "too many straws in the glass."
The Colorado River crisis is seen as a pivotal moment where climate change is forcing a fundamental reevaluation of water laws, policies, and agreements. While extreme weather events elsewhere often allow for a return to normalcy, the persistent low flows in the Colorado River necessitate significant changes, potentially including buying out water users or implementing mandatory cuts, for which current rules are inadequate.
Although fears of Lake Powell reaching "deadpool"—a state where turbines can no longer release water—exist, experts like Schmidt consider such a catastrophe unlikely, as authorities would intervene. Nevertheless, Lakes Powell and Mead are expected to remain significantly depleted, underscoring the urgent need for reduced water consumption. Porter emphasized that the severity of the situation can be managed, but only by reducing water withdrawal.