Key facts
- Iran has threatened to expand its campaign against global energy markets to the Red Sea.
- The threat relies on the capabilities of Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen.
- Closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the gateway to the Red Sea, would severely impact global energy markets.
- Approximately 7.4 million barrels per day, or 7% of global oil output, transited the Bab el-Mandeb strait in June.
- Saudi Arabia has significantly increased its crude oil exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
- Previous Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping in late 2023 caused major disruptions and diversions.
Iran has warned that its campaign to disrupt global energy markets could extend from the Strait of Hormuz to the vital Red Sea route if U.S. attacks persist, a threat that hinges on its allies, the Houthis in Yemen. The closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the gateway to the Red Sea, would represent a significant new front in the energy crisis and Iran's broader conflict with the U.S.
Any serious interference at Bab el-Mandeb would raise the prospect of both of the region's major oil export routes being shut simultaneously. Iran's previous actions in Hormuz disrupted oil exports, leading to price increases. In response, Saudi Arabia has rerouted over 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with shipments averaging 4 million barrels per day recently. In June, approximately 7.4 million barrels per day, or about 7% of global oil output, transited Bab el-Mandeb.
The Houthis, a movement in Yemen, have been ideologically aligned with Iran and have previously attacked shipping in the Red Sea. While they deny being an Iranian proxy, the U.S. claims Iran has armed, funded, and trained them. A senior Houthi official warned that Bab el-Mandeb would be closed if the situation escalated. The Houthis' motivations are primarily domestic, but they have demonstrated a willingness to act in alignment with Iran's regional objectives.
During previous Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping starting in November 2023, major companies diverted vessels around Africa due to the disruptions. A U.S.-led mission was established to ensure free navigation. While some attacks continued, they largely ceased with a Gaza ceasefire. Recently, the Houthis have been comparatively quiet, possibly holding the threat of a Red Sea closure in reserve for a wider escalation or to maintain their own ceasefire with Saudi Arabia.