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Oil rallies on Hormuz closure; grains mixed

Created at 1 Jun · 12:01 PM4 sources↑ Market-relevant4 events
IN SHORT

Energy prices rallied due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. July soybeans were up $0.055 at $11.92, July corn was down $0.005 at $4.4625, and July Chicago wheat was up $0.035 at $6.14. US processing margins for corn and soybeans are impressive.

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Key Numbers

$11.92July soybeans price
$4.4625July corn price
$6.14July Chicago wheat price
428 Mil BuApril corn grind
5 MilLower than expected corn grind

Who's Involved

AgResource Company
Provider of farm marketing advice and analysis
US
Reported escalated fighting with Iran
Iran
Reported escalated fighting with US
White House
Indicates peace proposal is further away
USDA
Forecast for corn used in ethanol production
NASS
Pegged April corn grind

↳ Why This Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. Its closure can lead to significant price volatility in energy markets. Meanwhile, agricultural commodity prices are influenced by planting progress, weather, and processing demand. Escalated fighting in the region and the absence of Chinese buying for US soybeans are also impacting price discovery.

Key facts

  • Energy prices rallied due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
  • July soybeans were up $0.055 at $11.92.
  • July corn was down $0.005 at $4.4625.
  • July Chicago wheat was up $0.035 at $6.14.
  • US processing margins for corn and soybeans are impressive.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. Its closure can lead to significant price volatility in energy markets. Meanwhile, agricultural commodity prices are influenced by planting progress, weather, and processing demand. Escalated fighting in the region and the absence of Chinese buying for US soybeans are also impacting price discovery.

Frequently asked questions

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, crucial for global oil transportation.

Energy prices rallied due to the reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupts oil supply routes.

US processing margins for corn and soybeans are described as impressive.

Grains prices are influenced by new month positioning, regional conflicts, global weather patterns, and demand, particularly from China for soybeans.

US corn used for ethanol production continues to lag behind the pace needed to meet USDA's forecast, influenced by sorghum supply, gasoline disappearance, and Brazilian ethanol prices.

What Happens Next

01Monitor precipitation events in the US and their impact on crop development.
02Observe Chinese soybean demand and global market pricing.
03Track developments regarding the Strait of Hormuz and regional conflicts.
04Monitor US corn grind pace relative to USDA forecasts.

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Cadence
CME Headlines
  • Live Cattle futures fell as liquidation trend extended.
    8 Jul · 8:17 PM
  • Live Cattle futures fell as liquidation trend extended.
    8 Jul · 8:17 PM
  • Grain futures turned lower as wheat snapped six-day rally.
    8 Jul · 8:06 PM

How It Developed

1 Jun · 10:47 PM
New analysis suggests wetter trends in the Corn Belt and Plains, potentially impacting corn futures.
AgResource | Ag Market News via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 10:47 PM
US corn used for ethanol production is lagging behind USDA forecasts due to sorghum supply and competitive ethanol prices.
AgResource | Ag Market News via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 6:47 PM
New article highlights escalated US-Iran fighting and potential impact on peace talks, alongside weather concerns and subdued Chinese soybean demand.
Consus Ag Consulting via PiQSuite
1 Jun · 11:53 AM
CBOT grains are mixed, with soybeans and wheat up while corn is down, as energy prices rally due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
AgResource | Ag Market News via PiQSuite

Sources

T1
AgResource Morning Commentary; CBOT Grains Mixed to Start the Week; Strait of Hormuz Closed and Energy Prices Rally; US Processing Margins for Corn and Soybeans Impressivem.piqsuite.com
T1
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Upm.piqsuite.com
T1
AgResource Corn Comment and Analysism.piqsuite.com
T1
US Ethanol Market Updatem.piqsuite.com

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