Goldman Sachs Lowers Oil Price Forecasts on Middle East Peace Deal Progress

• Goldman Sachs lowered its Q4 2026 Brent crude price forecast to $80/barrel from $90.
• The firm's 2027 average Brent price forecast was reduced to $75/barrel from $80.
• WTI forecasts were cut to $75/barrel for Q4 2026 and $70 for the 2027 average.
• The revision is based on an earlier assumed normalization of Persian Gulf exports by end-July.
• This acceleration is linked to progress on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding.

Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts downward for the second time in a week, reflecting an optimistic outlook on easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The firm now anticipates Brent crude to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, down from a previous forecast of $90, and $75 per barrel for the full year 2027, revised from $80. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude forecasts were also adjusted to $75 per barrel for Q4 2026 and $70 for the 2027 average.

The primary driver for this adjustment is Goldman Sachs' accelerated assumption for the normalization of Persian Gulf exports. The firm now expects exports to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of July, one month earlier than its previous estimate of late August. This shift is attributed to progress on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding and the anticipated resumption of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Goldman Sachs acknowledged that the full details of the agreement are still unclear and that its forecasts are contingent upon an orderly and timely implementation. The bank noted that slower global economic growth and the accelerated adoption of alternative energy sources during 2026-2027 also support a lower equilibrium for oil prices. The early restoration of Persian Gulf exports is expected to ease supply concerns, reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, and improve global energy supply chain logistics.