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Glencore: Energy markets highly sensitive to disruption

Created at 5 Aug · 9:21 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Trading firm Glencore reported that energy markets are increasingly sensitive to disruptions due to significant inventory drawdowns in the first half of the year. The company waived its value-at-risk limit for a period and saw a substantial increase in earnings from its marketing and industrial businesses.

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Key Numbers

$200mnvalue-at-risk limit waived
$456mnhigh value-at-risk measure in H1
$165mnaverage value-at-risk measure in H1
$72mnaverage value-at-risk measure in H1 2025
$3.64bnMarketing business Ebitda Jan-June
$1.7bnMarketing business Ebitda year earlier
$6.5bnIndustrial business Ebitda
72%Industrial business Ebitda increase
$4.4bnoverall profit in H1
$655mnoverall loss in H1 year earlier

Who's Involved

Glencore
Trading firm reporting increased market sensitivity and strong earnings

↳ Why This Matters

Glencore's commentary highlights the heightened fragility of energy markets and its own increased risk-taking to navigate it, alongside strong financial results driven by commodity trading and mining operations.

Key facts

  • Energy markets are increasingly sensitive to disruptions due to significant inventory drawdowns, Glencore stated.
  • Glencore waived its $200mn value-at-risk limit for a period between March and May.
  • The company's value-at-risk measure averaged $165mn in the first half, up from $72mn a year prior.
  • Adjusted Ebitda for Glencore's Marketing business increased to $3.64bn, driven by oil and gas trading.
  • The Industrial business's adjusted Ebitda rose 72% to $6.5bn.
  • Glencore reported a first-half profit of $4.4bn, a turnaround from a $655mn loss.

Energy markets are increasingly sensitive to disruptions due to significant inventory drawdowns in the first half of this year, trading firm Glencore said. The company reported its results for the January-June period, noting that volatility was such that it waived its $200 million value-at-risk (VaR) limit for a period between March and May.

Glencore uses VaR to estimate potential losses on risk positions. The measure hit a high of $456 million during the first half, averaging $165 million, a significant increase from the $72 million average in the comparable period of 2025. The company expects market volatility to remain above historical norms for part of the second half of the year, though at lower levels than experienced previously.

Adjusted earnings before interest and taxation, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) at Glencore's Marketing business, which includes its trading operations, rose to $3.64 billion in January-June from $1.7 billion a year earlier. This increase was primarily driven by oil and gas trading operations.

The company's Industrial business, encompassing its mining and crude production concerns, reported an adjusted Ebitda of $6.5 billion, a 72% increase year-on-year. Glencore's overall profit for the first half of the year was $4.4 billion, a substantial turnaround from a loss of $655 million in the prior year.

Frequently asked questions

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a measure used by Glencore to estimate the potential loss on risk positions over a defined time horizon at a specified confidence level, based on historical price movements.

The increase in adjusted Ebitda was driven mainly by oil and gas trading operations within the Marketing business, and by the Industrial business which includes mining operations.

Glencore reported an overall profit of $4.4 billion in the first half of the year, compared with a loss of $655 million in the same period a year earlier.

What Happens Next

01Glencore expects market volatility to remain above historical norms for some of the second half of this year.

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How It Developed

Glencore reported energy markets are increasingly sensitive to disruptions.
Significant inventory drawdowns occurred in the first half of the year.
Glencore waived its $200mn value-at-risk limit between March and May.
Value-at-risk measure hit a high of $456mn in the first half, averaging $165mn.
Average value-at-risk was $72mn in the comparable period of 2025.
Glencore expects market volatility to remain above historical norms in the second half.
Adjusted Ebitda at Glencore's Marketing business rose to $3.64bn from $1.7bn.
Oil and gas trading operations primarily drove the increase in Marketing Ebitda.

Sources

T1
Markets ever more sensitive to disruption: GlencoreArgus Media

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