Key facts
- The FAO Cereal Price Index decreased 3.5% in June to 110.2 points.
- Wheat prices fell 4.4% due to strong harvests in the Black Sea region.
- Maize prices dropped 6.2% on ample South American supplies.
- International rice prices increased 3.2%.
- Global cereal production is forecast to be the second-largest on record at 2.983 billion tonnes in 2026.
The FAO Cereal Price Index saw a significant decline of 3.5% in June 2026, reaching 110.2 points, the lowest in four months. This drop was primarily driven by substantial decreases in wheat and maize prices. Global wheat prices fell by 4.4% as harvests progressed rapidly and supply prospects improved in the Black Sea region, while maize prices decreased by 6.2% due to expectations of ample supplies from South America and weaker ethanol demand linked to declining crude oil prices.
In contrast, international rice prices rose by 3.2%, supported by stronger demand and weather-related production concerns in Asia. The vegetable oil price index increased by 3.8%, while the meat price index reached a new record high, up 0.5%. The dairy price index fell by 1.5%, and the sugar price index dropped by 5.7%.
The FAO forecasts global cereal production for 2026 to reach 2.983 billion tonnes, the second-largest harvest on record, though 1.9% below last year's output. Global wheat production is projected to decline by 4.3% to 806.5 million tonnes, with El Niño posing risks to Australian production. Despite generally favorable crop prospects, El Niño-related weather uncertainties persist. The organization also noted that 41 countries and territories, predominantly in Africa, require external food assistance due to conflict, insecurity, and weather shocks.