Key facts
- El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly.
- A strong El Niño event is expected between July and September, increasing global extreme weather risks.
- While Europe's direct impact is less severe, potential food shortages are a concern due to crop failures elsewhere.
- Climate change is exacerbating El Niño's effects, leading to record global temperatures.
- Recent extreme heat in Europe is primarily linked to climate change, not El Niño.
Forecasters are warning that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen rapidly in the coming months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events worldwide. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) anticipates a strong El Niño event between July and September, which typically leads to heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall.
El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon occurring every two to seven years, characterized by unusually warm sea temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon pushes global temperatures up, contributing to more frequent extreme weather. While its impacts are most pronounced in tropical regions, affecting areas like South America, the southern US, East Africa, and Central Asia with heightened flood risks, and Australia, parts of South America, and Indonesia with increased drought and wildfire risks, its effects on Europe are more indirect.
In Europe, El Niño is expected to cause more unsettled conditions later in the year, potentially leading to a milder, wetter, and windier autumn and early winter, but it is unlikely to significantly impact the summer. Experts caution that extreme weather events occurring overseas will still have a knock-on effect for Europe, potentially leading to food shortages. Staple crops in regions like Nicaragua could fail, impacting food security and income, while irrigated crops in Colombia, Northeast Brazil, and India may face severe restrictions due to water scarcity.
Climate experts emphasize that while El Niño's impacts are significant, climate change plays a much larger role in rising global temperatures and extreme weather. El Niño events typically increase global average temperatures by about 0.2℃, whereas climate change has already raised temperatures by approximately 1.3-1.5℃ compared to pre-industrial levels. This means El Niño's effects are compounded by an already warming world. Recent heatwaves in Europe, which have caused thousands of deaths, are primarily attributed to climate change, as rapid attribution analysis suggests such temperatures would have been virtually impossible in 1976 without continued fossil-fuel emissions.