Key facts
- Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering but remains fragile.
- 38 vessel crossings were confirmed on July 2, down 10% from the previous day.
- Daily crossings are within an emerging range of 30 to 60.
- Commercial vessels account for most traffic.
- Iranian-flagged activity has risen sharply.
- Operators are increasingly shifting towards Iranian and Dark or Unknown routes.
Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is continuing to recover, though shipping confidence remains fragile, according to vessel-tracking firm Kpler. On July 2, 38 vessel crossings were confirmed, a 10 percent decrease from the previous day but within an emerging daily range of 30 to 60 crossings. This contrasts with the prewar daily average of 125-140 ships, which carried approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day, about 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade.
Commercial vessels continue to constitute the majority of traffic. However, Kpler noted a sharp increase in Iranian-flagged activity, with operators increasingly utilizing "Iranian and Dark or Unknown" routes through the strategic waterway. This pattern suggests incomplete confidence, with passage influenced by political acceptance, compliance exposure, and ongoing negotiations regarding fees and route governance.